October 13, 2012

Strength Versus Weakness

The Cardinals ability to get on base represented their biggest strength coming into the NLDS. The team hit well, finishing second in batting average, and combined that with the fourth most walks in the National League. In addition, the team owned players up and down the lineup good at getting on base. Of the eight position players who started every game of the NLDS, five posted OBPs over .370 during the regular season, and only Daniel Descalso was under .320.

Walks represented the weak spot of the Nationals pitching staff. While Washington allowed the lowest OBP of any team in the National League, they did so by preventing hits. They walked 497 batters, seventh most in the NL. Watching them pitch to the Cardinals last night, this seemed to be by design. Their low batting average allowed comes from fooling batters, getting them to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, pitches they can’t hit. Since these are balls, they’ll lead to more walks, but the tradeoff is reduced hits.

The Cardinals batters were not fooled last night. It was a Moneyball win. The Cardinals process was great, recognizing pitches they could hit, and laying off the ones they couldn’t. Two or three times in the ninth Drew Storen threw pitches just off the plate that looked to close to take to me. Most batters, I suspect, would swing at those pitches, but they were balls. The Cardinals kept filling the bases with their high OBP, and chipping away until they eventually got the big hit.

While the St. Louis bullpen pitched great, this win belongs to the Cardinals offense. Their selectivity ruled the day, and brought them their sixth straight win in an elimination game.

2 thoughts on “Strength Versus Weakness

  1. Scooter

    I couldn’t bear to read anything about the game, or the NLDS, until now. I think this is a terrific analysis of just what went wrong (or right, depending on your perspective). Thank you!

    ReplyReply

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