Miguel Cabrera went 0 for 2 with two walks as he and the Tigers were shutout by Tampa Bay 3-0. The game was extremely close as the Rays did not score until the top of the ninth. It was the sixth time the Tigers were shutout this season. Detroit is leads the AL in runs per game, which makes them being tied with the White Sox and Angels for most times shutout in the AL unusual. They are a bit of an all or nothing team. Cabrera has been like this lately. In his last 17 games, he has no single RBI outings.

The RBI simulator produced the following numbers based on the 10,000 runs of the rest of Cabrera’s season. The average season total comes in at 157, with a minimum of 119 RBI and a maximum of 211. Ninety five percent of the observations ranged from 135 RBI to 180 RBI. That implies the chance of Cabrera breaking the AL RBI record (184) stands at 0.82%, and the chance of his breaking the MLB RBI record (191 RBI) stands at 0.0093%.

You can see the results of the daily runs and a graph of the probabilities in this spreadsheet.