This might be a good day for fans who like offense, as there are very few pitchers with low ERAs working on Thursday. The best pitching match-up of the day takes place in Boston where Derek Holland battles Jon Lester. Holland dialed up his strikeouts this season and cut his home run rate with it. After giving up 32 homers in 175 1/3 innings in 2012, he’s allowed just four dingers in 73 2/3 innings in 2013. He reduced both his percentage of fly balls, and the percentage of those that leave the park. Lester only made half his starts at home this season, but thrived at Fenway with a 2.51 ERA, versus 4.11 on the road. The only real difference is home runs, however, one at Fenway and four on the road.

The most evil game of the day takes place in Kansas City where Mike Pelfrey of the Twins faces Wade Davis. Both own ERAs over 6.00, but Pelfrey comes in the game with a 6.66 mark. (You can generate your own random evil player here.) Pelfrey pitches to contact, and gets hammered for doing so. Opponents own a .332/.387/.521 slugging percentage against him, which would earn most players a long term, nine-figure contract. Davis pitches well in terms of the three-true outcomes, with an xFIP about two runs lower than his ERA. Looks like the Royals defense doesn’t help him much.

Enjoy!