Miguel Cabrera comes up in the bottom of the first with men on first and second, and runs the count to 3-1. The fifth pitch is low, clearly ball four. The Moneyball idea of rewarding process says take the pitch and load the bases, since swinging at a ball out of the strike zone has a high probability of a poor outcome. Cabrera does take ball four often, but this time he swung, and made solid contact, golfing the ball over the centerfielder’s head for a ground rule double and an RBI. That gave the Tigers a 1-0 lead over the Red Sox.

So was this rewarding bad process? I would say no. Cabrera has shown over time that he knows what he can hit, and tends to make very good contact. There are hitters that in fact have a bigger strike zone than the one defined by the rule book. (Ichiro Suzuki, for example, hits very well on balls low and away outside the zone.) While taking the pitch would have increase the run potential for the inning, Cabrera’s recognition of the pitch, and that he could drive ball realized part of the potential immediately. The Tigers end up scoring twice in the inning, giving Justin Verlander a lead to protect.