Chris Davis had another big night for the Orioles as he hit his 32nd home run and drove in three runs to lead Baltimore to a 4-2 victory over the White Sox. For the first time since his opening home run salvo this season, the probability of Davis tying Roger Maris‘s AL single season home run record of 61 rose above .001, to .0019, or about 1 in 520. The odds of him breaking the record are still long, but steadily getting better.

Download or view the spreadsheet with the data here.

In addition, Davis is really starting to challenge Miguel Cabrera for the RBI lead, cutting Cabrera’s lead back to two. Davis now has about an 11% chance of winning or tying for the RBI lead in the AL. He gets 1/2 fewer PA per Orioles game than Cabrera gets per Tigers game. The greater number of chances is what is giving Miguel the higher probability at this point. It’s impressive that Chris is a close as he is. We could wind up with two players over 160 RBI in one season. That hasn’t happened since 1937, when Joe DiMaggio drove in 167 for the Yankees and Hank Greenberg drove in 183 for the Tigers (that was a 154 game season).