July 6, 2013

Team Falls, Records Advance

The Orioles blew a 4-2 lead over the Yankees in the fifth inning, and the New York bullpen holds the lead for a 5-4 Yankees victory. New York takes over second place in the AL East, 1/2 game ahead of Baltimore.

Chris Davis homered and Manny Machado doubled as the two continued to advance on the single season records in those categories. Right now, Davis has about a 1 in 1000 chance of break Maris’s single season AL home run record of 61, and a about a 1 in 500 chance of tying it. That’s based on his career home run rate coming into the 2013 season. Machado has a 31% chance of breaking Earl Webb‘s single season doubles record of 67 based on his career doubles rate. Based on a rate that is regressed to the AL mean, I put his chances at about 2.3%.

2 thoughts on “Team Falls, Records Advance

  1. pft

    Baltimore has to fix their pen. Late inning leads are no longer safe, unlike last year.

    Curious why they let a guy like Clayton Mortenson on the Red Sox clear waivers. Not that he would be the answer but he pitched real well last year and off the DL, who knows.

    ReplyReply
  2. pft

    I guess the pen is blameless after looking at the game summary. Not the case yesterday obviously.

    ReplyReply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *