Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Miguel Cabrera continued their pursuit of three major records this past week. Machado slumped a bit, with just four hits in 24 at bats, but did pick up his 39th double of the season. His probability of breaking Earl Webb‘s record of 67 doubles in a season ranges from 27% based on Manny career double rate down to 1.8% based on a regressed rate for him. He remains the most likely of the three players to set a record this year.

Davis also hit poorly over the previous seven days. He collected just three hits, but two were home runs. That brought his season total to 33. Based on his career home run rate through 2012, the chance of his tying Roger Maris‘s AL record of 61 homers is 0.16%, and of breaking the record, 0.08%. Davis needs to keep a pace of four home runs every ten games to beat Maris, which is a tall order for any power hitter. A spreadsheet with a graph of his progress is available here.

Cabrera received his game off this season during the week. Overall it was a pretty good six games as Miguel reached base 12 times, hit three home runs and drove in eight runs to give him 90 RBI on the season. He needs to average three RBI every two games the rest of the way to pass the major league record of 191 RBI, held by Hack Wilson. At the moment, the chance of that is very low, 0.0024%. The chance of breaking Lou Gehrig‘s AL record of 184 RBI is better, but not much better, at 0.069%. The spreadsheet with the history of the probabilities contains a graph of Miguel’s progress. As you can see, he’s been treading water since about June 22, collecting enough RBI to keep the record viable, but not enough to bring the probability back to a realistic level. I like his chances of averaging better than an RBI per game, but he’ll need to go on another big RBI streak to get back at a realistic chance of breaking a record. Luckily for Miguel, he plays on a excellent offensive team, so the opportunities will be there.

As far as another triple crown goes, Miguel has a 94% chance of beating Chris Davis for the RBI crown. We’ll see if Davis falls off in home runs enough for Miguel to catch him in that category, or if Davis goes on a hot streak and Miguel falls off, so Davis takes the TC.