July 18, 2013

AL West Review

The AL West features a tight race for first, but with a high-priced team lurking in the distance.

Oakland Athletics, 56-39, 1st place.

Strengths: Walks, on both sides of the ball. This may be the Oakland team that is about what many thought Moneyball was actually about. The A’s pitchers allowed the fewest walks while the A’s batters drew the second most in the American League. That gives them a Beane Count of 18, second in the league to the Tigers. In addition, the pitchers are great at preventing home runs. The combination of few walks and few home runs helps Oakland rank lowest in the AL in runs allowed per game.

Weaknesses: Hits, on offense. Oakland batters, while they are very good at taking ball four, are rather poor when putting the ball in play. They start with a low BABIP, .283, which may mean they don’t make good contact in general. Low BABIPs can be compensated for with low strikeout or high HR rates, but Oakland does neither of those things on offense. The pitchers don’t strike out that many batters, which is a weakness. The somewhat make up for it with a low BABIP, which indicates they prevent good contact.

Outlook. Oakland is 19-11 in one run games, so regressing to .500 in that category might hurt them. There is a silver lining to that I’ll discuss in the next section. The pitching is excellent, and the offense good enough to carry this team into the post-season, however.

Texas Rangers, 54-41, 2nd place in division and the AL Wild Card race.

Strengths: Peventing hits. The Rangers pitching staff strike out eight batters per nine innings, reducing the opportunities for hits. The Texas defense is good at gobbling up balls in play, so that helps prevent hits. At .248, the Rangers have the third lowest opposition batting average in the AL. This result is more impressive when you consider the injuries to the Rangers staff this season.

Weaknesses: The offense just isn’t that good. The only really terrible thing about it is the number of double plays recorded. Everything else is just a bit above or a bit below league average. They score 4.33 runs per game while the league average is 4.40. Nothing terrible, nothing good.

Outlook: Unless the Rangers can find some offense, they’ll need the pitching and defense to stay intact to win the West. Gaining a wild card won’t be easy, either, as there are a number of teams like Texas, good but flawed, in the race.

Texas stands 19-11 in one-run games, an even better record than Oakland. If both teams regress, it won’t be a problem for either. If one does and the other doesn’t, it could decide the division race.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 44-49, 3rd place.

Strengths: This is a decently strong team up the middle, with the exception of offense and defense at shortstop. Catcher, second base, and centerfield all produce very good on-base averages, and even some pop. The good thing about strength up the middle is that it tends to be easier to find solutions at the corners.

Weaknesses: The team has a tough time finding solutions at the corners due to long term contracts to Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton eating up resources. Those two not only are playing below expectations, but are almost impossible to replace. Then again, the Angels managed to rid themselves of Vernon Wells.

Outlook: The All-Star break might be the best thing for Albert Pujols, as he needs to get off his foot and let it heal. A big second half from the great slugger would help the Angels immensely. Making up nine games in the wild card is a tall order, however.

Seattle Mariners, 43-52, 4th place.

Strengths: Home runs hit. The Mariners moved in the fences and traded for sluggers, and that worked. They hit 115 home runs so far, second most in the American League. The pitching staff avoids issuing walks. Their 2.6 BB per 9 IP is the third lowest average in the AL.

Weankesses: Apart from home runs, the offense is dismal. Despite the high number of dingers, Seattle ranks ninth in total bases with few hits and few walks. Sixty one percent of their home runs were solo shots.

The reconfiguration of the stadium hurt the pitchers, as they allowed the fourth most home runs in the league this season. Forty three wild pitches, tied for second most in the AL, doesn’t help much either.

Outlook: This is a team with very limited strengths, and much worse weaknesses. A third place finish in the division would be a triumph for them.

Houston Astros, 33-61, 5th place.

Strengths: The front office. This is a very smart group of people, many of whom helped build the Cardinals. Think Tampa Bay after they became the Rays.

The offense has decent power for a team that does not hit well overall.

Weaknesses: The Astros hit the trifecta with the lowest average runs per game, the highest ERA, and the worst UZR. They don’t steal bases well, and they don’t stop the running game. If you didn’t know anything about baseball, and wanted to know if a stat was good or bad, you’d look at the Astros and check off bad.

Outlook: They should set a goal of wining 63 games, which would prevent 100 losses.

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