August 25, 2013

In Play Astros

Via BBTF, Crawfish Boxes examines the Astros draft strategy of taking hitters with high BB/K ratios, concentrating on keeping the strikeouts low:

So we know that in 2012, the Astros targeted college hitters who displayed excellent strikeout rates and good-to-excellent walk rates, sacrificing power, which can develop through coaching and the Astros’ policy of “selective aggression.” If a player can keep from striking out, he can stay in an at-bat. If a player can stay in an at-bat, he can get his pitch. The Astros seem to be banking on teaching players that if they can get their pitch, they can drive it.

One point that the author misses, which I believe is important, is that players who strike out infrequently post batting averages close to their BABIP. Since the average BAPIP is in the .290s, a low K team should produce a good batting average. By taking players with good batting eyes (the high BB/K), the high BA should lead to a high OBP as well.

The Angels teams of the early aughties found success with this kind of formula, although they didn’t walk all that much. They used an offense that put the ball in play, period, and good things happened. That that type of offense, and add some walks (remember when Bobby Abreu joined the team in 2009?) and you have a juggernaut. This is going to be a very interesting team in a few years.

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