The Tigers visit the Red Sox as the two ALDS winner meet in the 2013 ALCS. I like the Tigers in this series, and once again, I’ll send you back to the Hacker Index for the American League. The Red Sox put an expensive Moneyball offense on the field. Their batting average, compared to most offenses in the American League, gets a smaller contribution from batting average. The Tigers with an offense nearly the equal of the Red Sox in terms of OBP and Slugging percentage, get a lots of bang from their batting average.

Using the actual stats, Boston produced a .349 OBP with a .277 BA. Detroit (2nd in OBP to Boston) produced a .346 OBP with a .283 BA. The Red Sox were a little more dependent on walks for their high OBP, the Tigers a little more dependent on hits.

The Red Sox and Tigers were also 1-2 in the league in slugging percentage, Boston ahead .446 to .434. Again, because the Red Sox got there with a lower batting average, they needed more long hits to produce that lead. Boston hit two more home runs than Detroit, 178 to 176, but they hit 71 more doubles.

What is the Tigers pitching staff really good at? Preventing home runs and walks. Tigers pitchers allowed the fewest home runs in the AL in 2013, 128. They allowed 462 walks, fourth fewest. In fact, they are much better at preventing those elements of offense than the Red Sox staff as a whole.

Take away the Red Sox walks and the Red Sox power, while not doing as much to diminish the same on Detroit, and suddenly those hits, that batting average matters. On top of that, the Tigers pitcher do a better job of striking out batter than the Boston pitchers. High strikeout rates go with low batting averages, so the Tigers may even drive down the Red Sox BA.

There are mitigating factors, however. The Boston offense, which played well most of the year, had it all come together on or about Aug. 17th. From that date on they averaged 6.24 runs per game. That was the best in the majors by far, Oakland coming up second at 5.63 RPG. No other team was over 5.00. So the numbers for the season might not be a good reflection of how the Red Sox are hitting now. I will note that Detroit’s pitchers did very well against the second place team in runs scored in that period.

The other mitigating factor is that Miguel Cabrera is hurt. He remains dangerous, but he’s not force we became used to the last three seasons.

Still, I like the Tigers. If any staff can shut down the Boston offense, this one has the best chance. It will be close, but Detroit in seven.