Tag Archives: Ivan Nova

July 30, 2020

Games of the Day

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Almost all the games today in which the pitcher made a previous start feature one starter with a very low ERA and one with a rather high ERA. A less extreme match-up like this takes place in Washington, which for the moment is Canada on the Anacostia. The visiting Nationals take on the homeless Blue Jays at Nationals Park with Erick Fedde facing Hyun Jin Ryu. Fedde gave up four hits in four innings, but the only run came on a solo home run. Ryu gave up four hits in 4 2/3 innings, but the double and home run he allowed both game with men on base.

The other somewhat even match-up takes place in Detroit where the Royals send Brady Singer against Ivan Nova. It was a sunshine day for Brady in his MLB debut as he struck out seven and waled two in five innings. Nova, on the other hand, was wild, walking four and striking out just two in his five innings of work.

Enjoy!

Speaking of Brady singers:

September 18, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Arraez tops the Log5 list for the second day in a row. Arraez and Kendrick topped the two lists yesterday, and both went 3 for 5 in their games. Nova allowed tons of hits in April and May, pitched better during the summer, and now is getting hit hard again in September.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.351, 0.761 — Luis Arraez batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.333, 0.759 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jeff Hoffman.
  • 0.317, 0.757 — Howie Kendrick batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.326, 0.755 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Dillon Peters.
  • 0.324, 0.750 — Hanser Alberto batting against Clay Buchholz.
  • 0.320, 0.746 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Dillon Peters.
  • 0.298, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.307, 0.736 — Michael Brantley batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.312, 0.732 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jeff Hoffman.
  • 0.319, 0.730 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ivan Nova.

The two systems agree on Arraez and McNeil as the top two picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 13, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Astros play a double header at the White Sox to make up Monday night’s postponement. Ivan Nova is scheduled to pitch game two, although you may just make it easy on yourself and take Brantley in both games. As always with double headers, check the lineups to see who is starting in each game. Nova allowed a .294/.344/.487 slash line this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.331, 0.764 — Jeff McNeil batting against Max Fried.
0.333, 0.754 — Michael Brantley batting against Ivan Nova.
0.324, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Ivan Nova.
0.324, 0.744 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ivan Nova.
0.304, 0.734 — Christian Yelich batting against Martin Perez.
0.327, 0.734 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.295, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Cease.
0.279, 0.725 — Giovanny Urshela batting against John Means.
0.279, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against John Means.
0.287, 0.724 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Cease.

It’s a similar list, with Jeff McNeil coming out on top. McNeil and Brantley (against Nova) are the consensus 1-2 picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 27, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Rookie Luis Arraez owns a .374/.450/.481 slash line for the Twins in 151 plate appearance. His current season hit average is no longer being regressed much, and given Nova’s poor 2019, the expected hit average for this season should be rather high.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.331, 0.766 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.323, 0.749 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.327, 0.737 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.335, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.315, 0.734 — Christian Yelich batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.325, 0.731 — Jorge Polanco batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.314, 0.730 — Melky Cabrera batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.301, 0.725 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.305, 0.725 — Daniel Santana batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.283, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

The NN knocks Arraez down a bit. The one year regression (to 200 PA) knocks his hit average down to .301 from his actual .325. The three year regression (to 600 PA), knocks his hit average down to .253. In comparison, McNeil comes in at .309/.306. We simply have more information about McNeil, but enough about Arraez to start ranking him high. McNeil is the consensus first pick, Arraez the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 22, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

A combination of a light schedule and Nova pitching bring a number of Marlins into the top ten. Cooper posted a .311/.385/507 slash line so far this year. Rojas, Ramirez and Alfaro all have decently high batting averages with few walks.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.314, 0.749 — Michael Brantley batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.322, 0.746 — Howie Kendrick batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.302, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.295, 0.734 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.308, 0.725 — Javier Baez batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.327, 0.724 — Garrett Cooper batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.306, 0.723 — Daniel Santana batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.306, 0.722 — Anthony Rendon batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.312, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against Adrian Sampson.
  • 0.319, 0.718 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.290, 0.718 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Homer Bailey.

Fewer Marlins make this list, as the NN concentrates more weight on the batter. Howie Kendricks is the consensus first pick, but Brantley is always a good choice. He is also the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 17, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are a few names new to the list as Nova, Anderson, and Pivetta all allow fairly high batting averages with fairly low walk rates. Merrifield owns the longest current hit streak at fourteen games.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.323, 0.772 — Jeff McNeil batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.349, 0.757 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.316, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.286, 0.735 — Howie Kendrick batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.298, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.299, 0.723 — Nolan Arenado batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.300, 0.723 — David Dahl batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.310, 0.718 — Alex Verdugo batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.288, 0.716 — Christian Yelich batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.311, 0.716 — Cody Bellinger batting against Nick Pivetta.

Once again, McNeil tops the list with a very high probability of a hit. He is tied with Merrifield for the consensus first choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 7, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Log5 method likes the Cubs against Ivan Nova. Nova has brought his hits allowed somewhat more under control lately, however. He does give Baez problems, as the Cubs star is just 4 for 21 against Nova with seven K.

Here are the neural network picks:

The red hot Jeff McNeil once again tops the NN list. In his brief career, McNeil is already 5 for 13 against Nola. Baez is the consensus first pick, with McNeil tied with Kendrick for consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 23, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Andrus owns a high batting average and a relatively low OBP. That means he collects hits at a high rate relative to the league, but still makes outs at a decent clip. This is exactly the kind of player one needs to extend a hit streak.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.340, 0.740 — Elvis Andrus batting against Ivan Nova.
0.317, 0.738 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.279, 0.731 — Jeff McNeil batting against Cole Hamels.
0.325, 0.730 — Tim Anderson batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.298, 0.725 — Jorge Polanco batting against Homer Bailey.
0.264, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Michael Soroka.
0.331, 0.722 — Daniel Santana batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against J.A. Happ.
0.298, 0.721 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Pineda.
0.315, 0.718 — Cody Bellinger batting against Antonio Senzatela.

The NN produces a somewhat different list, as the NN downplays Ivan Nova’s high hit rate in 2019. It’s impressive to see the high OBP sluggers making the list as Yelich and Bellinger may be involved in the greatest batting race since Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams in 1956. That year, Mantle beat Williams .353 to .345 in BA. Those are the batting averages of Bellinger and Yelich this morning.

Andus is the unanimous first pick. Yelich is the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 7, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Log5 puts a number of Royals on the list against Ivan Nova. Nova gives up a ton of hits without walking nor striking out many batters. The Royals way is to make contact, so this game may provide a good double down opportunity.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.336, 0.750 — Jeff McNeil batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.346, 0.745 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.316, 0.741 — Michael Brantley batting against Gabriel Ynoa.
  • 0.310, 0.735 — Howie Kendrick batting against Nick Margevicius.
  • 0.315, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.333, 0.731 — Cody Bellinger batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.319, 0.729 — David Fletcher batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.315, 0.726 — Tim Anderson batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.297, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Brandon Woodruff.
  • 0.298, 0.722 — Austin Meadows batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.298, 0.722 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.

McNeil comes out number one on the NN list, as the NN gives more weight to the batter’s ability. McNeil’s hit average parameters are .303 for this season, .282 for the three year stretch. (Remember, those are regressed and weighted.) Merrifield comes in at .269 and .270.

McNeil and Merrifield are tied for the consensus first pick. McNeil is 6 for 12 so far in June.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 1, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Batters against Nova just do well this season. He allowed a .347/.393/.551 slash line so far. That’s a high OBP without a lot of walks. His strikeout rate is low, so batters are putting the ball in play and finding plenty of holes.

Here are the neural network picks:

This is unusual, in that the leader in Log5 barely makes the list. Brantley is 4 for 13 with two strikeouts and no walks against Anderson. That’s a .308 BA, pretty close to the Log5 prediction. He puts the ball in play against Anderson, making a hit more likely. Arenado and Freeman are tied for consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 27, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

I expected this list to be dominated by batters against Ivan Nova and Homer Bailey, but Nova wins out. This may be one of the few days when it is a good bet to double down on Royals.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.353, 0.745 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.345, 0.731 — Adalberto Mondesi batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.321, 0.729 — Tim Anderson batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.311, 0.727 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.311, 0.725 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.301, 0.724 — Elvis Andrus batting against Tom Milone.
  • 0.312, 0.721 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.312, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Nick Kingham.
  • 0.275, 0.717 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
  • 0.275, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against Cole Hamels.

The NN list isn’t quite as Nova heavy, and it agrees with the Log5 method that Merrifield and Mondesi are the top picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 22, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Nova pitched poorly so far this season, and the Astros lineup is tough on most good pitchers.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.380, 0.770 — Michael Brantley batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.317, 0.738 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.355, 0.734 — Josh Reddick batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.342, 0.733 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.315, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.311, 0.729 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.322, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Daniel Straily.
  • 0.304, 0.722 — Jorge Polanco batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.340, 0.718 — George Springer batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.285, 0.716 — Javier Baez batting against Cole Irvin.

Brantley is just 1 for 7 against Nova for their careers. Martinez is 7 for 15 against Bailey. Brantley and Reddick are the consensus first and second choices. Brantley’s .770 probability is by far the highest single day probability seen this season.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2019 May 17, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

One of the weaknesses of the Log5 method is that a pitcher who is getting knocked around can make everyone on the opposition look really good. Nova allowed 61 hits in 44 1/3 innings so far, with only 12 walks. That’s good for a .330 BA. Galvis owns a .279 BA, but with a .302 OBP. A high BA with a low OBP indicates a high hit average, so Galvis versus Nova should be a good match for a hit.

Here are the neural network picks:

This is a very different list, no Blue Jays make the cut. Melky Cabrera and Jean Segura are the consensus 1-2 picks. Brantley has a pretty good history against Porcello, 11 for 39 with two doubles, two home runs, and four walks. The biggest positive, however, is that Brantley struck out just twice. Putting the ball in play is a prerequisite for getting a hit.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 1, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

I included the top 11 since Yelich is unlikely to play today. With the rainout Tuesday, Mancini versus Nova comes out on top again. Note that even though none of their statistics changed, Mancini is predicted to bat .001 points higher than yesterday. That’s due to the league average going down a point. That’s means Mancini and Nova are even higher above the league in terms of hit average than they were yesterday. Hit average for position players is now .220, which is pretty low. As the weather gets better, I would expect it to rise to near .230.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.325, 0.743 — Michael Brantley batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.304, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.335, 0.723 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.302, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.300, 0.717 — Christian Yelich batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.294, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.287, 0.712 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.308, 0.711 — Cody Bellinger batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.296, 0.711 — Javier Baez batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.306, 0.710 — Josh Reddick batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.281, 0.707 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jameson Taillon.

Just like yesterday, Brantley and Mancini are tied for the consensus first pick.

Note that there are two double headers today, so make sure you are choosing the correct game if you decide to select someone of the Rays, Royals, Orioles, or White Sox.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 30, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are some unusual names on the list today, as the Orioles get a chance to hit against Ivan Nova. Nova allowed a .351 BA so far this season. The Orioles picked up Hanser Alberto via what appears to be a series of waiver transactions, and he is hitting .324 this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.313, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.334, 0.724 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.294, 0.721 — Jose Martinez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
  • 0.295, 0.717 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.279, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.299, 0.710 — Cody Bellinger batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.292, 0.710 — Javier Baez batting against Felix Hernandez.
  • 0.273, 0.706 — Jean Segura batting against Tyson Ross.
  • 0.287, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.

A lot of the Orioles drop out as the NN puts more weight on long term success or failure. Trey Mancini and Michael Brantley are tied for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 13, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Nova has always been a fairly low strikeout pitcher, which means he gives up more hits than innings. So far this season he allowed 13 hits in nine innings. LeMahieu is off to a great start, hitting .439 and striking out very little. They seem to be a match made in heaven, as LeMahieu is five for seven career against Nova.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.304, 0.718 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.285, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
  • 0.290, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Andrew Cashner.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
  • 0.271, 0.701 — Anthony Rendon batting against Chris Archer.
  • 0.272, 0.696 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Estrada.
  • 0.261, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Archer.
  • 0.276, 0.695 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.274, 0.695 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Hernandez.
  • 0.272, 0.694 — David Peralta batting against Matt Strahm.

The two systems agree on LeMahieu, with Altuve, Martinez, and Freeman all tied for consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 28, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Urena.
0.301 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.300 — Jean Segura batting against Jacob Nix.
0.295 — Justin Turner batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.294 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.293 — Mookie Betts batting against Jose Urena.
0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.291 — Harrison Bader batting against Ivan Nova.
0.290 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.288 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.283 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.281 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Ivan Nova.
0.279 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.278 — Miguel Andujar batting against James Shields.
0.277 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Starlin Castro batting against Brian Johnson.
0.275 — Corey Seager batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.273 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jose Urena.
0.272 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.271 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brian Johnson.
0.270 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.270 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.

It looks like a good night for the Cardinals against Nova. Jose Martinez is 2 for 10 against Nova, but Molina is 6 for 10. Neither has struck out against Nova, and balls in play can turn into hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.743 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.306, 0.737 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Urena.
0.300, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Jacob Nix.
0.270, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.293, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Jose Urena.
0.278, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting against James Shields.
0.294, 0.711 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.290, 0.710 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.295, 0.708 — Justin Turner batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.279, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.301, 0.707 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.268, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.292, 0.701 — Manny Machado batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.276, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Brian Johnson.
0.265, 0.698 — Ronald Torreyes batting against James Shields.
0.270, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.273, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jose Urena.
0.263, 0.697 — David Peralta batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.272, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.253, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.255, 0.694 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd.
0.258, 0.694 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.285, 0.694 — Matt Kemp batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.260, 0.694 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Noe Ramirez.

The Angels are using an opener strategy today, as Noe Ramirez gets the start. Jose Martinez is the consensus choice. It’s a two Martinez day as J.D. Martinez is the consensus second choice, although with Altuve tied for first, that is a good double down as well.

(Note that Jose Martinez is actually first. To four decimal places, Martinez is .7432, Altuve is .7427.)

The top pick each day has now generated a 16 day streak. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. We’ll see tonight if Jose Martinez can top that. Unfortunately, being late in the season, I’ve been doubling down, so my current streak is eight.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 21, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — J.D. Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.328 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ivan Nova.
0.327 — Mookie Betts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.323 — Nick Markakis batting against Ivan Nova.
0.317 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.317 — Albert Almora batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.313 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310 — Javier Baez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.310 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.308 — Charlie Culberson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.305 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304 — Ronald Acuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.301 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.298 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.296 — Johan Camargo batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Sal Romano.
0.294 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.294 — Nomar Mazara batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Ender Inciarte batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291 — Steve Pearce batting against Shane Bieber.
0.291 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.

If you like doubling down with two hitters from the same team, taking Betts and Martinez from Boston or Freeman and Markakis from Atlanta might work for you. Freeman is just 1 for 6 against Nova, but Markakis has a long history against the Pirates starter and is 14 for 42, .333.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.748 — J.D. Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.328, 0.738 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ivan Nova.
0.327, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.317, 0.736 — Albert Almora batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.285, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.313, 0.729 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.317, 0.728 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.323, 0.728 — Nick Markakis batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.723 — Javier Baez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.305, 0.721 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.286, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tanner Roark.
0.308, 0.716 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.310, 0.715 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ivan Nova.
0.301, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.289, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Robert Erlin.
0.305, 0.713 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.298, 0.711 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295, 0.711 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Sal Romano.
0.294, 0.710 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.279, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.281, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robert Erlin.
0.308, 0.707 — Charlie Culberson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.278, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.279, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robert Erlin.

It looks like a day to pick the sluggers, as Martinez and Freeman are the unanimous 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 16, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
0.323 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.300 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.298 — Nick Markakis batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.294 — Jason Heyward batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — David C Bote batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — Anthony Rendon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.288 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.287 — Willson Contreras batting against Ivan Nova.
0.286 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — Tommy La Stella batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284 — Adam C Eaton batting against Luke Weaver.
0.284 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283 — Trea Turner batting against Luke Weaver.
0.280 — Addison Russell batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.276 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.275 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.275 — Victor Caratini batting against Ivan Nova.
0.273 — Juan Soto batting against Luke Weaver.

Log5 predicts a good day for the Cubs but none of the Cubs at the top of the list have a history of hitting Nova well.

Note that the Phillies and Mets play a double header today, so be careful which game you pick.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
0.329, 0.741 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.323, 0.730 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.298, 0.712 — Nick Markakis batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284, 0.712 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.287, 0.707 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.281, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.286, 0.701 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.264, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.292, 0.699 — Anthony Rendon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.275, 0.699 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.288, 0.696 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.267, 0.696 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.259, 0.696 — Eddie Rosario batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.272, 0.693 — Yadier Molina batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Luke Weaver.
0.254, 0.692 — Elvis Andrus batting against Taylor Cole.
0.271, 0.692 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.300, 0.690 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.270, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ervin Santana.
0.284, 0.690 — Adam C Eaton batting against Luke Weaver.
0.267, 0.688 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tanner Roark.
0.272, 0.686 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.294, 0.686 — Jason Heyward batting against Ivan Nova.
0.256, 0.686 — Matt M Duffy batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

Daniel Murphy takes first place for the first time this year as he regained his swing after a long recovery from off-season surgery. Wilson Ramos came off the disabled list yesterday and hit two doubles and a triple. Murphy and Almora are tied for the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 4, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.307 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Jean Segura batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.299 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293 — Anthony Rendon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Harrison Bader batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.287 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Ivan Nova.
0.286 — A.J. Pollock batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286 — Adam C Eaton batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.286 — Dee Gordon batting against Marco Estrada.
0.286 — Matthew Adams batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Juan Soto batting against Matt Harvey.
0.285 — Nick Markakis batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Walker Lockett.
0.284 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chance Adams.
0.283 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.283 — Anthony Rendon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.

The Reds and Nationals play a split admission double header Saturday. That’s why you are seeing a number of players twice on the list. I suspect Daniel Murphy might only play one of the games, since Washington is trying to keep him healthy, so be careful when you pick. Of course, you could always go with a pair of Cardinals against Ivan Nova.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.320, 0.730 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chance Adams.
0.313, 0.719 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.292, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.285, 0.714 — Albert Almora batting against Walker Lockett.
0.299, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.307, 0.713 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Chance Adams.
0.286, 0.711 — Dee Gordon batting against Marco Estrada.
0.289, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.279, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Burch Smith.
0.275, 0.708 — Scooter Gennett batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.283, 0.707 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.296, 0.705 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.281, 0.705 — Michael Brantley batting against Felix Pena.
0.280, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Walker Lockett.
0.274, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.291, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey.
0.306, 0.700 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293, 0.700 — Anthony Rendon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Zack Wheeler.

Murphy against Harvey is scheduled for the night cap. Jose Alutve would have been the top pick if he was not on the disabled list. Segura might be a better pick if you don’t have time to check if Murphy is playing. Murphy against Harvey is the consensus first choice, with Jose Martinez the consensus second choice. Murphy is 4 for 10 career against Harvey.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 22, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.324 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.321 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.317 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.311 — Michael Brantley batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.308 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Jesse Winker batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.303 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302 — Mookie Betts batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.301 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Maikel Franco batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.300 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.299 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.294 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292 — Leury Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — Nick Williams batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.291 — Scott Schebler batting against Ivan Nova.
0.290 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.290 — Austin Meadows batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Francisco Lindor batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288 — Matt Kemp batting against Brent Suter.
0.288 — Tyler Naquin batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Gennett hits Nova poorly, 2 for 17 with two walks. He only struck out twice, however, so he puts the ball in play, a prerequisite for getting a hit. Note that the Padres and Phillies are playing a double header so make sure you are picking players in those games against the desired pitcher.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.749 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.317, 0.731 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.287, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.300, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.292, 0.727 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.311, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.302, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.321, 0.724 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305, 0.723 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.299, 0.722 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.324, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287, 0.719 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brad Keller.
0.301, 0.715 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290, 0.711 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.273, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.288, 0.710 — Matt Kemp batting against Brent Suter.
0.278, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.280, 0.706 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.292, 0.705 — Leury Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.307, 0.704 — Jesse Winker batting against Ivan Nova.
0.277, 0.703 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke.
0.282, 0.702 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Archer.
0.281, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting against Brent Suter.

Gennett is the unanimous choice, with Corey Dickerson the consensus second choice. That double down gives you just one game to watch! There is a lot of rain in the forecast today in the east, so keep an eye on postponements as well.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 3, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.329 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.305 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.302 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.296 — Maikel Franco batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.295 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.295 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.292 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.289 — Nick Williams batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.284 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.284 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Brian Johnson.
0.283 — Justin Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Jed Lowrie batting against Clayton Richard.

Matt Kemp comes off a five hit night, so he’s a little hot. Kemp is 3 for 9 career against Nova with no strikeouts and no walks. Alex Cobb gives up so many hits, I had to remove a number of Phillies pitchers from the list.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.321, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.304, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.332, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.736 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.731 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.329, 0.723 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.295, 0.721 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.280, 0.718 — Scooter Gennett batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.281, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.288, 0.714 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.284, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.296, 0.713 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.290, 0.710 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.280, 0.709 — Avisail Garcia batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.280, 0.708 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285, 0.707 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.267, 0.703 — Eddie Rosario batting against Junior Guerra.
0.273, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.276, 0.701 — Jose Martinez batting against Zack Greinke.
0.292, 0.701 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.271, 0.701 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.

Altuve hits the top spot again, trading the third slot with Kemp. They are tied for the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 16, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.354 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.345 — Brian Anderson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.342 — Starlin Castro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.328 — Derek Dietrich batting against Alex Cobb.
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.322 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.314 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Nick Markakis batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.311 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303 — Matt Kemp batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.302 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.301 — Adam Jones batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.301 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.299 — Scott Schebler batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.295 — J.T. Riddle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.294 — Manny Machado batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292 — Miguel Rojas batting against Alex Cobb.
0.291 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Minor.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Justin Bour batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luis Castillo.
0.287 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Minor.

With Alex Cobb on the mound for the Orioles, it’s a good day to double down on Marlins hitters. Starlin Castro is only 1 for 11 with three K against Cobb, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.360, 0.764 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.323, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.354, 0.741 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.322, 0.737 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.269, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Steven Wright.
0.342, 0.732 — Starlin Castro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299, 0.728 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.345, 0.725 — Brian Anderson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.303, 0.722 — Matt Kemp batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.313, 0.721 — Nick Markakis batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.302, 0.719 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Fernando Romero.
0.291, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.296, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.284, 0.714 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.283, 0.713 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.301, 0.713 — Adam Jones batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.314, 0.711 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Minor.
0.311, 0.709 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Minor.
0.291, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Minor.
0.278, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Marco Estrada.
0.270, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.279, 0.706 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.

Both systems agree on Gennett as the top pick, with J.T. Realmuto the consensus second pick. Gennett is only 1 for 14 against Nova in his career, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 10, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.382 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.354 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.337 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Matt Moore.
0.316 — George Springer batting against Matt Moore.
0.313 — Michael Brantley batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.313 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311 — Kevin Pillar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.309 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Tommy La Stella batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Willson Contreras batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.303 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.301 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.
0.300 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Carlos Correa batting against Matt Moore.
0.299 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.297 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Marco Estrada.
0.297 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Dwight Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Alex Bregman batting against Matt Moore.

Both predicted hit averages for Altuve and Almora are astronomical. Opponents are hitting .341 against Moore this season, while Nova allows a high BA and a low OBP. Both batters and both pitchers collect and allow hits at a way above average rate, and those combinations produce a high Log5 result. Altuve is 4 for 12 against Moore, Almora 0 for 3 against Nova.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.382, 0.791 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.354, 0.756 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.337, 0.739 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Matt Moore.
0.313, 0.739 — Michael Brantley batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.288, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.305, 0.730 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.307, 0.725 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298, 0.723 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
0.301, 0.717 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zachary Godley.
0.291, 0.715 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zachary Godley.
0.289, 0.713 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zachary Godley.
0.300, 0.713 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.
0.287, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.711 — Jose Ramirez batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.255, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.280, 0.710 — Jose Abreu batting against Rick Porcello.
0.301, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.264, 0.707 — Matt Kemp batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.299, 0.706 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.316, 0.704 — George Springer batting against Matt Moore.
0.274, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.313, 0.702 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.
0.275, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.309, 0.701 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.

There is perfect 1-2 agreement between the two systems. Altuve’s .791 probability of a hit is the highest generated this season.

The NN ran 70 days so far this season. Based on the daily predictions it should be right 73.8% of the time, and generated 52 days with hits. It’s been right 82.9% of the time and generated 58 days with hits. It’s current streak is five days, and generated a streak of six, two streaks of seven, two streaks of eight, and a streak of ten. The NN had favorable luck so far this season.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 2, 2018

Games of the Day

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Wednesday afternoon features Blake Snell taking on Michael Fulmer as the Rays finish their series with the Tigers. Snell looks for his fifth win of the season. His 41 strikeouts in just 35 2/3 innings held opponents to just 23 hits. Fulmer is giving up middle of the road BA/OBP/Slug, but opponents are hitting just .179 with runners in scoring position.

Ivan Nova and Stephen Strasburg meet in an early evening game between the Pirates and the Nationals. Since joining the Pirates, Nova allowed just slightly more home runs than walks. His home run rate is okay, but his walk rate is outstanding. Strasburg already allowed seven home runs after giving up an average of 14 over the previous three seasons. Six of those were solo shots, however.

Luis Severino and Dallas Keuchel square off in game three of the Yankees series at the Astros Severino comes into the game with a 4-1 record, and Keuchel is the opposite at 1-4. Severino’s higher K rate led to many fewer hits allowed, especially in home runs. Severino allowed two in 38 innings, Keuchel six in 36 innings.

Finally, Hyun-Jin Ryu leads the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks and Zack Godley. The Dodgers are using Ryu sparingly, but effectively. He pitched just 28 1/3 innings in five starts, but allowed just 15 hits. Godley only pitched 28 1/3 innings, but he pitched poorly in a couple of starts.

Enjoy!

Correction: The Rays are playing the Tigers.

April 9, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cubs become the last team to open at home as they host the Pirates. Ivan Nova takes on Tyler Chatwood. Nova is off to a poor start in 2018, with a 6.10 ERA in 10 1/3 innings. He walked four batters already, after walking 36 in all of 2017. Chatwood walked six in his six inning first start, but only allowed one run as opponents went one for nine with runners in scoring position.

The evening sees Francisco Lirano and Detroit facing Corey Kluber and Cleveland. Lirano had some bad luck in Cleveland over the years. Despite striking out 54 batters in 39 1/3 innings, his ERA stands at 4.81. He gave up 44 hits and 25 walks. It seems to be an all or nothing park for Liriano. Kluber is pitching great, but the Indians scored just three runs for him this season in two games.

The red hot Braves invade D.C. as Julio Teheran faces Max Scherzer. The Braves scored seven runs or more in five of their nine games played. That includes a game in which they scored five runs off Scherzer. Scherzer was hurt by an error in that game, but his three-true outcomes are great, with one home run, three walks, and seventeen strikeouts in 11 IP.

Enjoy!

April 4, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Rays at Yankees features two pitcher that have yet to allow a run as Blake Snell takes on Luis Severino. Both pitched 5 2/3 innings in their first starts, but arrived at run prevention differently. Snell allowed the ball to be put in play as he walked two and struck out two. Batters, with the ball in play, were 3 for 17. Severino walked three and struck out seven. Opponents were 1 for 11 against him with the ball in play.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks finish their series with Alex Wood facing Patrick Corbin. The Diamondbacks smacked Wood a bit in their home park, as he owns a 5.40 ERA there, mostly due to four home runs allowed in 21 2/3 innings. Corbin is off to a very good start with strikeouts, with eight so far in his first 5 2/3 innings.

Corey Kluber tries to tame the Angels home run bats as the Indians face Tyler Skaggs. Kluber allowed 65 home runs over the previous three seasons, but 41 were solo shots. Skaggs’s strength is his low walk rate, and he did not issue a free pass in his first start while striking out five.

The Pirates try to remain the only undefeated team in baseball as the Twins send Jake Odorizzi against Ivan Nova. Odorizzi made a strong start in his Twins debut, walking two and striking out seven in six shutout innings. Three of the six hits Nova allowed in his first start were doubles, and two of those came with men on base.

Finally, veteran aces square off as Felix Hernandez and the Mariners battle Johnny Cueto and the Giants. Both pitchers are trying to bounce back from rough 2017 seasons, and both are off to a good start. Hernandez pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings, allowing two hits, in his first start. Cueto topped that, with seven innings, allowing one hit, no runs, and no walks.

Enjoy!

March 30, 2018

Games of the Day

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Four teams make their 2018 debuts on Friday after rain postponed their scheduled opening day. The Pirates take on the Tigers in the interleague match-up, Ivan Nova battling Jordan Zimmermann. Nova posted a great walk rate since joining the Pirates, 1.4 batters per nine innings. He needs that, as his low strikeout rate leads to a high number of hits. The Nationals appear to have let Zimmermann go at the right time. He owned a 3.32 ERA in his year in Washington, a 5.60 ERA since joining the Tigers.

Max Scherzer takes on Homer Bailey as the Nationals open at the Reds. Since joining the Nationals in 2015, Scherzer sits atop the major league strikeout leader board, a hair in front of Chris Sale. Note that the top three in the list also walk very few batters. Bailey is coming off is first winter in years without surgery or rehabilitation. He will play 2018 as a 32-year-old, so it would be unwise to expect him to return to peak performance. He only walked three in 18 spring innings, but he did allow 26 hits and seven home runs.

Finally, the Dodgers and Giants contine their series with Johnny Cueto taking on Alex Wood. Cueto’s 2017 ERA came in at 4.52, the first time since 2009 that he was over 4.00 for a season. Wood reduced his ERA 1.00 run from 2016, thanks to a much lower walk rate.

Enjoy!

September 22, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Cardinals try to gain in wild card race as they take on the Pirates. Michael Wacha faces Ivan Nova. Wacha owns a 5.07 road ERA this season, having allowed 11 of his 16 home runs away. Nova has been super at home with a 2.87 ERA. For some reason, he made just 11 of his 18 starts in Pittsburgh, failing to accentuate the positive.

The Cubs try to make it two in a row against the Brewers as John Lackey faces Brandon Woodruff. Lackey was thrown out of his last start for challenging an umpire, but holds a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 September innings this season. The rookie Woodruff strength so far is his walk rate, with just ten issued in 35 2/3 innings.

The Angels keep running into tough competition as they try to win a wild card. They send Garrent Richards against the Astros and Justin Verlander Friday night. Richards finally seems to be recovered from his injuries, with a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings. His three true outcomes are excellent as he struck out 18, walked three and allowed one home run in 18 innings. Verland proved a great acquisition as he posted a 0.86 ERA in three starts for the Astros.

Enjoy!