Tag Archives: Jonathan Cannon

September 24, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Rays face the Tigers with Ryan Pepiot facing Tarik Skubal. The Rays have a tough road to a wild card, but a sweep of the Tigers would likely put them back in the picture. Meanwhile, the Tigers lose tiebreakers to the Royals and Twins, so finishing a game ahead of either of those teams is critical to their wild card hopes. Skubal is at the top of the Cy Young tracker in the AL.

The Orioles send Dean Kremer against Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees. New York need one win in the three-game series to capture the AL East title. Kremer owns a 4.63 ERA against the Yankees in eleven starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings. Schmidt owns a 1.76 ERA in three starts since coming off the illjured list, but he hasn’t gone deep into games.

The Braves get a chance to catch the Mets in the NL Wild card race as the teams open a three-game set in Atlanta. Luis Severino takes the hill against Spencer Schwellenbach. Severino managed to limit hits without a ton of strikeouts, and his decent walk rate helped balance his home runs allowed. Schwellenbach keeps batters off base with a .284 OBP allowed.

The White Sox can set a modern record for losses in a season as they host the Angels. Both Jack Kochanowicz of LAnaheim and Jonathan Cannon of Chicago give up high slugging percentages, so this could be a rather high scoring game.

The Mariners play game two of their series at the Astros, four games back of Houston with five games to play. The Mariners hold the tiebreaker against Houston, and would only need to gain one more game over the last weekend if they sweep the series. An Astros win gives them the division. It’s Logan Gilbert versus Framber Valdez, a great pitching matchup.

Finally, the Padres visit the Dodgers, three games back of Los Angeles for the NL West title. Michael King takes on Landon Knack. Note that the Padres hold the tie breaker versus the Dodgers, so a sweep puts them in first place. Then, they would only need to play the Dodgers even over the last weekend.

The Rays, Orioles, Mariners, and Padres all play to start or continue a sweep. You might even lump the Braves in there. Should be a terrific Tuesday.

September 4, 2024

White Sox Watch

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The White Sox win! They take down the Orioles 8-1. I watched quite a bit of the game, and the south siders played well. Starter Jonathan Cannon mixed his pitches well to keep the Orioles hitters off balance. The defense looked good, and the offense delivered three home runs.

That win doesn’t change much, however, as there still is a 0.86 probability that they finish with 40 wins or fewer.

June 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Cannon pitched 33 1/3 MLB innings with a very low walk rate and a not too high K rate. Teams so far put the ball in play against him, and he allowed a .343 BABIP. Note that his AA and AAA BABIPs were also high. Tovar Ks quite a bit but doesn’t walk much, and owns a .369 BABIP this season and a .340 mark for his career.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.282, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.290, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.276, 0.710 — Steven Kwan batting against Cole Ragans.
  • 0.291, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.280, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.275, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.278, 0.690 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.296, 0.690 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.272, 0.687 — Luis Rengifo batting against Reese Olson.
  • 0.272, 0.686 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tylor Megill.

Older Fenway faithful might be slightly reminded of Wade Boggs when they see Arraez at the plate, although Boggs was more likely to work a walk to go with all his hits. Arraez, Altuve, and Ramirez all tie for the consensus top pick. Ramirez’s high ranking has more to do with his two previous seasons. In 2024, his OBP and power fell off a cliff. His .255 hit average in 2024 is well above the league average of .217, but well below his .278 average since the start of 2022, The Rays chose to release him, and he hasn’t done much with the Nationals yet. He’s a good example of a poor hitter who might actually do well in extending a streak,

Bryan Reynolds extended his streak to 24 games, and Yandy Diaz is now at 20 games. Reynolds probability of extending his streak is at .636, Diaz at .679.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 18, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Freeman, with a seven-game hit streak, is 6 for 11 career against Gomber with no strikeouts.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.278, 0.719 — Steven Kwan batting against Bryce Miller.
  • 0.299, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.304, 0.711 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.295, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.290, 0.700 — Amed Rosario batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.279, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.298, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.273, 0.695 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Hogan Harris.

Jonathan Cannon ranks as one of the best names for a pitcher ever. So far, however, his high K rate failed to prevent hits.

The two systems disagree a bit today, leading to a three-way tie for the consensus top pick of Arraez, Freeman, and Ohtani. Given the Dodgers game takes place in Colorado, Freeman and Ohtani seem like a good double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!