For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.361 — Trea Turner batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.320 — Alec Bohm batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.309 — Bryce Harper batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.307 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.306 — Jake Fraley batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.296 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.296 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.294 — Rece Hinds batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.289 — Steven Kwan batting against Matt Waldron.
- 0.289 — David Bote batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.289 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Bibee.
There are a number of unannounced starters on the MLB site, so I am using the FanGraphs probable pitchers here. Somehow, the Nationals and Pirates actually announced Perez and Corbin as the pitchers to start the second half. I do understand it, as the veterans starting today give all the youngsters one more day off.
Note that Rece Hinds makes the list after just seven games. While it helps that he is facing Patrick Corbin, Hinds’ 11 hits in 28 PA translate to a regressed .242 hit average for this year and .226 for the long term, both above the .218 MLB average.
All in all, it looks like a good day for the Phillies.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.361, 0.755 — Trea Turner batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.289, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.307, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.289, 0.714 — Steven Kwan batting against Matt Waldron.
- 0.272, 0.713 — Jose Iglesias batting against Edward Cabrera.
- 0.320, 0.712 — Alec Bohm batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.309, 0.696 — Bryce Harper batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.269, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.278, 0.694 — Amed Rosario batting against Gerrit Cole.
- 0.263, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
As usual, the NN is less sensitive to bad pitching, although the top Phillies hitters still do well. Arraez is listed as day to day as he jammed his left thumb. Both systems put Trea Turner at the top, with Witt the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!