Tag Archives: Cincinnati Reds

September 23, 2024

For Whom the Bell Tolls

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The Reds fired manager David Bell:

Bell, 52, received a three-year contract extension in July 2023 after the surprising Reds surged into contention following a 100-loss season in 2022. With an exciting young core that included shortstop Elly De La Cruz and a cadre of talented arms, the Reds were expected to be in play for a National League Central title.

Instead, they faltered, with injury and underperformance leading to a 76-81 record and fourth-place standing.

ESPN.com

Bell’s teams were around .500 for most of his time there, with one really poor season in 2022. Given all the injuries this season, 76-81 isn’t all that bad.

Sometime teams don’t need steady. Sometimes teams need a manager who will criticize things that other teams see as good.

I suspect the Reds success next season will depend on how healthy they get, rather than who they hire.

September 6, 2024

Viva Vientos

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Mark Vientos of the Mets posted a big night for the home team as they beat the Reds 6-4 in 10 innings. Vientos homered early, his two-run shot in the first giving New York a 2-0 lead. He homered late, hits bottom of the tenth inning shot winning the game and allowing the Mets to remain in a tie with the Braves for the third wild card slot in the NL. Vientos also singled in the game. He is now 11 for 24 during the Mets eight game win streak.

September 5, 2024

Lowder ERA

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Rhett Lowder of the Reds made quite the impression in his second MLB start Thursday afternoon. He shutout the Astros for 6 1/3 innings. He did walk four and strike out just three, but all the hits were singles.

That gives him one run allowed in his first 10 1/3 innings for an 0.87 ERA. He’s doing this after going up three levels in the minors in one season. I suspect there is a little bit of luck behind that ERA, but he struck out 113 in 108 2/3 innings in the minors, walking just 24. If the control comes around, he could be awesome.

September 4, 2024

Airing Out Arrighetti

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The Reds score nine runs in the first inning all nine charged to Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti. He faced eleven batters, recording two outs, and his night ended when Elly De La Cruz picked up his second hit of the inning. He doubled, then singled. All in all, Arrighetti allowed six hits and three walks.

It’s a disappointing outing for the pitcher after he posted a 1.95 ERA in August. That was seven runs allowed in 32 1/3 innings.

August 14, 2024

Power Head, Power Heart

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Reds leadoff hitter Jonathan India and cleanup hitter TJ Friedl each hit two home runs in the 9-2 win over the Cardinals. India’s strength is getting on base, and his three for five tonight raises his OBP to .353, with his slugging going to just .395. While Friedl’s slugging percentage goes to .421, his had good power as his isolated power stands at .188. The

Reds move into a tie with the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, both teams one game below .500.

August 9, 2024

Talk About Power Speed Numbers

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MLB will play a game at a race track next summer:

Officials from MLB and the track known as “Thunder Valley” that holds more than 146,000 fans for NASCAR races announced Friday that the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds will play in the Speedway Classic there on Aug. 2, 2025.

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It will be a Reds home game, with the first two of the series being played at Cincinnati.

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The game will be the first National League or American League regular-season game played in the Volunteer State and continues MLB’s push to break new ground. There have been major league games in recent seasons at Fort Bragg in North Carolina in 2016; Omaha, Nebraska, in 2019; Iowa’s Field of Dreams in 2021; and Rickwood Field in Alabama earlier this year.

Those games were the first MLB contests in those respective states.

ESPN.com

MLB will likely expand in the next few years, and having games like this gives the MLB front office a chance to see how engaged these fans are in difference parts of the country. While the thought is that two teams would be added, and we would get eight four-team divisions, MLB could go whole hog, add six teams, and go with six six-team divisions. Six team divisions work really well in a 162 game schedule.

I’ve heard announcers saying they miss all the intra-division games. With six-team divisions, teams could play 90 games in division, and 72 games against two other divisions, the two outside divisions changing every year.

August 3, 2024

Snell No Hitter

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Blake Snell of the Giants pitched a no-hitter Friday night against the Reds in Cincinnati for a 3-0 San Francisco victory:

Blake Snell was one out away from pitching the first no-hit game in his illustrious career and had to get power-hitting Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz one more time.

Cruz jumped on Snell’s first pitch, a 97.8 mph fastball in the middle of the zone, ripping it hard to the gap in right-center field. Giants right fielder Mike Yastrzemski — inserted for defensive purposes in the eighth inning — ran it down, leaping to make the catch and preserve Snell’s gem and 3-0 win.

The 31-year-old lefty, the league’s reigning Cy Young Award winner, was mobbed his teammates. It was third no-hitter in the majors this season.

ESPN.com

The link contains an interview with Snell that points out this is the first game of his career that he pitched into the ninth inning. Snell then discusses how in recent games he adopted the philosophy of attacking the zone more, trying to get batters out with no more than four pitches. He’s allowed two earned runs in his last 33 innings, with ten walks and 41 K. This is the reigning Cy Young winner making adjustments to his game.

July 30, 2024

Overnight Deals

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The Reds acquired DFA’s Ty France and cash from the Mariners for a minor league catcher. This was more of a warm body deal than a deadline deal. Seattle gets something for France. The Reds also traded Frankie Montas to the Brewers for Joey Wiemer and Jakob Junis. This was a need trade rather than an improvement trade for the Brewers.

The Braves traded with the Giants for two players from their World Championship team:

The Atlanta Braves acquired outfielder Jorge Soler and right-handed reliever Luke Jackson from the San Francisco Giants late Monday, bringing back two key players from their World Series-winning 2021 team.

The deal, which will send left-handed reliever Tyler Matzek and minor league third baseman Sabin Ceballos to San Francisco, was essentially a money dump by a Giants team playing perhaps its best baseball of the year. The Braves will assume the remainder of Soler’s salary this season as well as the $26 million he’s owed on the free agent deal he signed with San Francisco over the winter.

ESPN.com

The Braves needed a power bat. Ceballos at least gives the Giants an infielder who gets on base. While the Giants are still technically in the wild card race, there are three teams in front of them before they get to the third wild card. That makes it a lot tougher to catch up.

July 28, 2024

It’s Not Easy Hitting Greene

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Hunter Greene of the Reds just finished four perfect innings against the Rays. He struck out three batters along the way. With his Ks low, he’s only thrown 43 pitches. The Reds lead the Rays 1-0 in the top of the fifth inning. Greene’s opposition BA is down to .188 this season.

Update: Greene issues a walk and hits a batter, but the no-hitter is intact through five innings.

Update: Elly De La Cruz just made a sliding backhand catch on a pop up into shallow leftfield for the first out of the sixth inning, preserving the no hitter. A fantastic play, up there with Jeter’s dive into the stands.

Update: With two out in the sixth inning, Brandon Lowe singles to right for the first Rays hit. The Reds still lead 1-0.

July 11, 2024

Thursday Thumpings

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The first three games played early Thursday afternoon ended in blowouts, with the road team held to one run or less. The Tigers took down the Guardians 10-1 as Jack Flaherty pitched six strong innings while Riley Greene and Gio Urshela each drove in three runs.

The Reds beat the Rockies 8-1 with Rece Hinds collecting two more hits, including a rare single. Tyler Stephenson was the star at the plate, however, as he drove in five runs with two homers. Hunter Greene struck out ten batters in six innings for the win, and his ERA drops to 3.34.

The Mets threw a shutout against the Nationals, with David Peterson going six innings for the win in the 7-0 victory. J.D. Martinez picked up three hits, missing the cycle by a triple.

The Pirates played at the Brewers, and also scored just one run, but Paul Skenes pitched seven shutout innings, striking out eleven. The bullpen held the lead, striking out four more for the 1-0 win. Yasmani Grandal drove in the only run of the game with a double in the seventh. Skenes is now 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA.

July 4, 2024

Reds Sweep

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The Reds completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees Thursday afternoon Jonathan India went three for five and hit one of three home runs off Yankees starter Marcus Stroman. India started a hot streak on June 18th, and in his last 15 games he collected multiple hits ten times. Fourteen of his 25 hits in that time went for extra-base. The Reds haven’t taken full advantage of his hot streak, as they are only 8-8 in that stretch.

I can see this being a big boost for Cincinnati. I thought they were the team to beat in the NL Central going into the season.

The Yankees continue to receive poor starting pitching, Through 6/14 they recorded 32 quality starts in 72 games and owned the second highest average game score in the majors. They’ve now had just three quality starts in their last 17 games and own the lowest average game score in the majors.

May 19, 2024

A Knack for Pitching

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Landon Knack of the Dodgers pitched a short but effective game as Los Angeles beat Cincinnati 3-2 in ten innings. The rookie lasted 4 2/3 innings, allowing a run on three hits and a walk. In his first 20 2/3 innings in the majors he owns a 2.61 ERA.

Of course, I have wonder, if your last name is Knack, how can you not name a son Nick? I also hope his girl friend/wife named Sharona.

And that his favorite food is Bolonga.

May 4, 2024 April 21, 2024

No Starter, No Problem

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Reds staring pitcher Frankie Montas left the game after three batters due to a line drive striking him. Six Reds relievers then shutdown the Angels for 8 2/3 innings to give Cincinnati a 3-0 win. Brent Suter took the long relief role, going 3 1/3 innings. Overall, the pen gave up six hits and four walks while striking out six.

Jose Soriano starter for the Angels, and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He fell apart, however, allowing three runs, two more than the Reds needed.

April 13, 2024

Tibia Return

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Nick Lodolo returned to the Reds rotation on Saturday after a tibia injury caused him to miss most of 2023. He pitched briefly but brilliantly against the White Sox, holding them to one hit while striking out ten in 5 2/3 inning. The Reds went on to win the game 5-0. The Reds bullpen did as well, as Chicago batters ended the game with two hits and 15 strikeouts. White sox batters now own 87 hits and 120 strikeouts on the season.

Update: We have video of Lodolo’s rehab:

March 28, 2024 March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL Central

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The division previews continue with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.47
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.45
  • Core Winning Percentage: .601

The Reds positioned themselves to take control of the NL Central in 2024. On offense, opponents face no glaring holes; the batting order is consistent top to bottom. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Stephenson sit in the middle of their primes. Elly De La Cruz* and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are young and offer quite a bit of upside. This team should generate runs at a high rate.

*Cruz reminds me of Bo Jackson. I felt Jackson was somewhat overrated offensively, but he was one of the few players I would pay to see perform. Jackson was an exciting, dynamic player. Cruz may fit that model.

The Reds are the strongest team offensively up the middle.

The rotation doesn’t really hold an ace, but none of the starters rank as terrible. The starters and closer are more than good enough for the offense, plus it’s tough to generate a good projection in that ballpark.

If the Reds acquired a superstar hitter in the off season, they might run away with the division. Instead, they’ve developed a cost effective winning team.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.52
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.64
  • Core Winning Percentage: .587

The Cardinals mirror the Dodgers this season, in that they leave me unimpressed with their pitching staff. Both of those teams over the years seemed to maintain a constant flow of minor league talent to the mound, despite winning records that limited draftable talent. This rotation is old, with only Zach Thompson, in his early prime, offering any chance at an upside.

Ryan Helsley ranks as the division’s best closer, but none of the closers are very strong.

The Cardinals offense, however, projects to be the best in the division. They start three batters who project to better than six RC/G, the only team in the division with more than one. They do have a couple of potential holes in Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson, but Winn is young enough to have some upside and prove that projection wrong.

I would be very surprised if the Cardinals repeated their last place finish is 2023. They did a good job rebuilding the offense, and we’ll see who they have in the pitching pipeline of the veteran starters falter.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.44
  • Core Winning Percentage: .568

The Cubs bring the best core pitching in the division to the table, although they are only 0.01 runs better than the Reds. Chicago may very well be better than that number, as Kyle Hendricks‘ poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 drive up his RC/G. We will see if he can continue to compensate for a lower K rate by limiting walks and home runs. A lot will also depend on how well Shota Imanaga adjusts to the majors after pitching in Japan. He may well be the ace.

Offensively, the Cubs are in the same position with Cody Bellinger as with Kyle Hendricks. Two poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 moderate the expectations for Bellinger repeating his outstanding 2023. There is plenty of prime talent in the rest of the order, so if those two veterans can keep things turned around, the Cubs will compete for the division title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

The Brewers took a step back this season, especially in the core pitching. While Freddy Peralta projects to be the best starter in the division, the rest of the rotation and the closer offer unimpressive results. You can see why Craig Counsell, wanted to leave. He doesn’t want to rebuild, and the Cubs offer a much better chance of winning soon.

The team looks less impressive on offense as well, although that was not their strength in 2023. They project to be the lowest scoring team in the division in 2024. The silver lining her is that the offense is decently strong up the middle. If by chance they find themselves in contention, it’s easier to improve offensively on the corners than at the skill positions.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.91
  • Core Winning Percentage: .519

The Pirates did not seem to do much to build on their fourth place finish in 2023. Mostly, they once again failed to put decent talent around their one great hitter, Bryan Reynolds. Maybe they finally get a good season out of Oneil Cruz. Maybe Ke’Bryan Hayes does more than play great defense. The young hitters aren’t that young anymore, and if they don’t hit their strides soon, this will go down as a failed development cycle.

The offense needs to be good to compensate for the poor core pitching, projected to be the worst in the division. Maybe rookie Jared Jones turns out to be good, but there’s nothing in his minor league numbers that scream ace.

Maybe there is talent waiting in the minors, but this looks like another disappointing season for the Pirates.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Cincinnati Reds 45%
  • St. Louis Cardinals 25%
  • Chicago Cubs 20%
  • Milwaukee Brewers 7%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates 3%

If you like catchers who can hit, this is a great division. Given the overall lack of pitching talent, I expect rather high scoring games when these teams meet head to head.

The Reds should take the title, but I don’t think they will run away. The big question for me is will the Cardinals or the Cubs give them the most trouble?

March 18, 2024

Wrist Watch

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TJ Friedl, centerfielder of the Reds, broke his wrist on Saturday:

Friedl, 28, mostly batted first or second in the lineup last season, his third in the majors. He hit .279 with 18 home runs, 66 RBIs, 47 walks, and stole 27 bases in 33 attempts.

His absence could mean playing time in center field for the right-hand-hitting Stuart Fairchild and lefty-hitting Will Benson, according to Nick Krall, Cincinnati’s president of baseball operations.

ESPN.com

The Reds employ a rather balanced lineup, with the smallest spread between their best and worst lineups based on Musings Marcels projections. The Lineup Analysis tool bats Friedl seventh in the order, making him a bit more easy to replace offensively. Fairchild is projected to slash .239/.323/.414 in 2024, while Benson comes in at .263/.345/.443. Both are perfectly fine with the bat.

March 15, 2024

Team Offense Summary

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With all thirty teams analyzed, the Dodgers and Braves come out on top, flipping one and two from last season. The LAT shows the Dodgers finishing first in the majors in runs per game, beating the Braves by 0.07 runs. Note that the Dodgers own a bigger spread between their best and worst lineups, 0.37 runs to 0.32 for the Braves. This suggests Los Angeles may be more dependent on their star players than Atlanta, and more susceptible to an injury causing havoc.

That is pretty much what happened to the Yankees last season. New York, with a healthy starting lineup and the addition of Juan Soto, moves from twenty fifth to fourth. That the biggest jump any team made this season. They still have a high spread, 0.43 runs, so once again remaining healthy becomes the biggest priority for the team. The Cardinals also make a big jump, going from nineteenth to fifth.

There are some drops as well. The biggest one belongs to the Cubs, going from sixth to twenty second. One reason for that would be Cody Bellinger. Musings Marcels uses three years of data to evaluate a player. While Bellinger posted great numbers in 2023, his 2021 and 2022 season were poor. He gets knocked down for that. If he returns to his 2023 level, this will turn out to be a poor prediction for the Cubs.

The Rangers, Rays, and Orioles also show drops. Part of that comes from the young players on the team still getting strong regression toward the league averages. Teams will adjust to these hitters. Some will fade due to that, but some will adjust back. Again, youth brings upside.

On the low end, the Nationals drop from twenty first to last, predicted to finish behind the awful Oakland lineup.

The Reds get my vote for most interesting team in the study. They rank seventh, just behind the Phillies. The spread between their best and worst lineups is just 0.15 runs, indicating their talent is evenly distributed throughout the batting order. In other words, they are loaded with good talent. With youth as well, there is upside to the prediction. If there is going to be a surprise offensive juggernaut, the Reds could be it.

Next week we’ll start to see how things shake out.

You can see the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

March 2, 2024

Team Offense, Cincinnati Reds

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The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished ninth in the Majors and fifth in the National League in 2023 with 4.83 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That David Bell batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 5.09
  • Probable lineup: 5.04
  • Worst lineup: 4.94
  • Regressed lineup: 4.63

The spread between the best and worst Reds lineups stands at just 0.15 runs. That’s 24 runs, or between two and three wins on a season. A high number of Reds players fit into any slot, so producing a poor lineup is difficult. The only certainty the LAT finds is batting Matt McLain fourth.

A big reason for the homogeneity of the lineup comes from the regression of a number of players with limited major league experience. Five of the starters come into the season with less than two years under their belts, so there projected stats get pushed toward the league averages. That’s both good and bad. There is a lot of room for upside, but there is also a big chance for downside.

Reds fans should be optimistic, however. Young players have time to improve, and most of the lineup projects to good OBPs. There seems to be a trend so far with teams concentrating on players who get on base with okay power. I suspect right now power is expensive, but offenses can score five runs a game by putting enough batters on base. This should be an exciting time for Reds fans as these youngsters mature.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

November 30, 2023

Nick of Time

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The Reds sign veteran pitcher Nick Martinez of a two-year deal with an opt-out:

Fortifying their pitching staff was a top priority for the Reds, who were surprising contenders in the NL and at 82-80 finished just shy of a wild-card berth. Cincinnati boasts a young core of infielders in Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand — all of whom were 23 or younger this season — along with utilityman Spencer Steer (25), right fielder Will Benson (25), second baseman Jonathan India (26), catcher Tyler Stephenson (27) and center fielder TJ Friedl (28).

Martinez is expected to join a rotation that could include any of five 25-and-under pitchers: Right-handers Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft, and left-handers Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson.

ESPN.com

Martinez pitched mostly out of the bullpen in his last two seasons, with 2023 resulting in the highest WAR of his career. He posted his highest single season K rate and his lowest single season home run rate. Over his career, batters found him tougher to hit as a reliever.

That’s okay, however. Martinez serves a role as a back of the rotation starter. This is exactly the kind of deal a team should make when they are ready to win. The Reds don’t need a star, they need someone to fill a hole for not too much money, and Martinez fits the bill exactly.

November 6, 2023

Early Odds

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The early lines for the 2024 season league championships are out, courtesy of www.betonline.ag:

Odds to Win the 2024 American League
Texas Rangers17/4(+425)
Houston Astros19/4(+475)
Baltimore Orioles6/1(+600)
New York Yankees8/1(+800)
Toronto Blue Jays8/1(+800)
Tampa Bay Rays9/1(+900)
Seattle Mariners10/1(+1000)
Boston Red Sox12/1(+1200)
Minnesota Twins14/1(+1400)
Cleveland Guardians28/1(+2800)
Detroit Tigers28/1(+2800)
Los Angeles Angels33/1(+3300)
Chicago White Sox50/1(+5000)
Kansas City Royals75/1(+7500)
Oakland Athletics100/1(+10000)
Odds to Win the 2024 National League
Atlanta Braves7/2(+350)
Los Angeles Dodgers4/1(+400)
Philadelphia Phillies11/2(+550)
San Diego Padres9/1(+900)
New York Mets11/1(+1100)
Arizona Diamondbacks14/1(+1400)
Chicago Cubs16/1(+1600)
San Francisco Giants16/1(+1600)
Milwaukee Brewers18/1(+1800)
Cincinnati Reds20/1(+2000)
St Louis Cardinals20/1(+2000)
Miami Marlins25/1(+2500)
Pittsburgh Pirates28/1(+2800)
Washington Nationals35/1(+3500)
Colorado Rockies100/1(+10000)
As of 11/6/2023

I suspect bettors underestimated the NL Central here. The Brewers and Reds deserve more credit. The Marlins seem low, also.

Are the Tiger underestimated as well? They just made a deal for veteran Mark Canha. He addresses a team weakness in getting on base. It’s the kind of move good teams make when they are ready to win, plugging a weakness with a veteran. We shall see.

The AL East looks like a monster division again, although the Yankees look overrated to me. They need to build a good, complementary roster around their two superstars, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. People still like the Padres and Mets. I understand thinking the Padres have to play better, but after the Mets tore their roster apart, I don’t see them recovering that quickly.

The longshot bet would be the White Sox. New management might just figure out the disfunction, and there is talent there. They’ve already let Tim Anderson go to free agency.

September 30, 2023

Diamondbacks Clinch

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The Cardinals beat the Reds 15-6, which puts the Diamondbacks into the Wild Card round. The Cubs could tie the Diamondbacks, but Arizona holds the tie breaker. So all that is left to settle is which of the Marlins or Diamondbacks will be the two seed. The Marlins hold the tie breaker between the two teams.

Arizona currently trails Houston 1-0 in the eighth inning.

September 30, 2023 September 29, 2023

Massive Tie Scenario

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To my great delight, two of the possible massive tie scenarios improved last night. J.P. Crawford of the Mariners gets a lot of the credit as he hit a bases loaded, two out, walk off double to turn a 2-1 Texas lead into a 3-2 Seattle victory. A three-way tie for the AL West occurs if the Mariners take the next three games from the Rangers (1/8), and Houston takes two of three from the Diamondbacks (3/8). a probability of 0.0469.

With the Blue Jays beating the Yankees 6-0, a three-way tie for the bottom two wild card slots including Seattle and Houston stands at 0.0351, down 0.0001.

Rain threw a monkey wrench into the NL Wild Card race as the weather forced a suspension of the game between the Marlins and the Mets with Miami leading 2-1 at the start of the bottom of the ninth inning. The game will be completed Monday. With the Diamondbacks falling to the White Sox 3-1 and the Cubs losing to Atlanta 5-3, the probability of a four way tie including the Reds is now 0.00225, and the probability of a three-way tie among the top three teams is 0.0296.

For today, the best results would be:

  • The Marlins scuttle the Pirates.
  • The Blue Jays fall to the Rays.
  • The Cubs defeat the Brewers.
  • The Reds clip the wings of the Cardinals.
  • The Astros defang the Diamondbacks.
  • Seattle wins over the Rangers.

That gives us six meaningful games with three days left in the season, an advantage of expanding the playoffs.

September 28, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

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The Rangers won Wednesday night and Houston beat Seattle, leaving the possibility of a three-way tie for the AL West intact, but it’s a huge longshot. The Mariners, four games behind Texas, need to sweep the four-game series with the Rangers in Seattle. There is a 1 in 16 chance of that happening. The Astros would need to take two of three from the Diamondbacks, a 3 in 8 chance, for a probability of 3/128 or 0.023. There is a better chance of a three-way tie for the last wild card slot between the Blue Jays, Astros, and Mariners, 0.0352.

The three-way ties in the NL wild card race look dead with the four-way tie at 0.001 and the three-way tie at 0.026. Maybe things will look brighter after tonight’s games. I may need to switch this to the Reds, Marlins, and Cubs for the third wild card slot.

The best results for tonight would be:

  • The Diamondbacks fall to the White Sox.
  • The Blue Jays lay an egg against the Yankees.
  • Miami defeats the Mets.
  • The Cubs beat the Braves.
  • The Mariners sail past the Rangers.
September 27, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

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It Tuesday was a decent day for the Massive tie scenarios. The AL West tie got an infusion as the Rangers fell to the Angels 9-3 and the Mariners downed the Astros 6-2. The independent calculation of the probability of a three-way is 0.01, but the games are not independent. Right now, the Mariners trail the Rangers by three games. They must go into their four-game head-to-head series an even number of games out to have the possibility of a tie. So the Rangers and Mariners need to have different outcomes today for a three-way tie to be possible. So there is a 50% chance this scenario ends tonight.

In the NL Wild Card, the Reds won to keep their hopes alive. The Diamondbacks won and the Cubs lost, while the Marlins were rained out. Miami plays a doubleheader today against the Mets. The probability of a three-way tie between Arizona, Chicago, and Miami stands at 0.044, or 1 in 22 chances. The four-way tie is still a long-shot at 0.0056.

The best results for today would be:

  • The Diamondbacks fall to the White Sox.
  • The Marlins sweep the Mets.
  • The Reds defeat the Guardians.
  • The Cubs scalp the Braves.
  • The Rangers fall to the Angels.
  • The Mariners rocket by the Astros.

If the Mariners win and the Rangers lose, then Seattle needs to take three of four over the weekend to force a tie. If the Rangers win and the Mariners lose, then Seattle needs to sweep.

September 26, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

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The chance of a massive tie in the AL West crashed on Monday as the two leading teams, the Rangers and Astros both won, the Astros downing Seattle to send the Mariners four games back in the AL West race. There are few paths left to a three-way tie as the probability crashes to 0.0045. That pretty much leaves us with a possible three-way tie in the NL Wild Card.

For today, the best results would be:

  • The Reds get by the Guardians.
  • The Marlins defeat the Mets.
  • The Cubs fall to the Braves.
  • The Diamondbacks lose to the White Sox.
  • The Rangers fall to the Angels.
  • The Mariners find victory over the Astros.

We’re going to have some fun tonight.

September 24, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

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All four teams involved in the potential tie for the NL Wild Card won on Sunday, pushing the probability of that tie down slightly, as no one gained on the leaders. That lowered the probability of the tie slightly, from 0.00287 to 0.00277. The tie between the three leaders, improved. One game separated the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Marlins, so the probability there went from 0.0356 to 0.0393. There is about a one in 25 chance of that happening.

The three way tie for the AL West is on life support as the Rangers complete a sweep of the Mariners and the Royals complete a sweep of the Astros. I’m a bit flabbergasted by the Astros defeats Houston is an excellent team, I would think one of the top four in the majors in talent. They have experience under pressure, but they get swept by a 102 loss team. The good news for the Royals is they need just one more win to guarantee they finish ahead of Oakland, and won’t have the worst record in the AL.

As Texas gained a game on both their division rivals, the probability of a three-way tie was cut in half, from 0.0277 to 0.0129. It’s going to be tough for Houston to catch the Rangers for the division. Texas gets to play a week LAnaheim team while the Astros and Mariners battle for the third wild card slot. Seattle already owns eight wins in the season series against Houston, so the Mariners own the tie breaker. The Astros are in real danger of not making the post-season.

For Monday, the best outcomes for Massive Ties would be the following:

  • The Diamondbacks lose to the Yankees.
  • The Mariners defeat the Astros.
  • The Rangers fall to the Angels.

It will probably be worth staying up late this week.

September 24, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

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Both Massive Tie Scenarios I’m following took hits on Saturday. For a while, it looked like the four-way tie for two NL Wild Card slots looked like it would improve, with Arizona rained out in New York while the Cubs and Marlins won. The Reds, however, blew an early 9-0 lead over the Pirates, with Pittsburgh then holding on for a 13-12 win. That reduced the probability of a four-way tie to 0.00287. I’ve added a three-way tie between the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Marlins to the mix, and the probability of that happening is 0.0356. Both ties would most likely happen at 84 wins.

In the AL West, the Rangers took a second game from the Mariners, dropping Seattle two back in the race. The Astros fell to the Royals, so Texas now leads the division by 1 1/2 games, with a two game lead in the loss column over both teams. Luckily, the Rangers hand Mariners have five games left head-to-head, so Seattle could pull them back towards a tie. The probability of a three-way tie drops to 0.0277, with the most probable win total for a tie coming at 89 wins. Note that a three-way tie for two wild card slots with Toronto, Houston, and Seattle is also in the works.

For today, here are the best outcomes to advance a massive tie:

  • The Diamondbacks fall to the Yankees.
  • The Reds defeat the Pirates.
  • The Marlins down the Brewers.
  • The Astros overthrown the Royals.
  • The Cubs can go either way against the Rockies.
  • The Mariners sail past the Rangers.

Eight days this week to see if at least a three-way tie can finally happen.