Monthly Archives: February 2012

February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012

Gutierrez Injury

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Franklin Gutierrez flew back to Seattle to have an injury examined:

Eric Wedge just gave a brief health update on Franklin Gutierrez, and while there’s no official report yet, it doesn’t sound great. Gutierrez has flown back to Seattle (bad sign #1) to get examined further, and Edge mentioned that he has “considerable concern” about Gutierrez’s status going forward.

If this is really a long term problem, I wonder if it might an intra-division trade. With the Athletics down a third baseman and swimming in outfielders, maybe they can take Chone Figgins off the hands of the Mariners and send them someone to roam Safeco Field?

February 29, 2012

Objective PMR, Leftfielders

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The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at leftfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team leftfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
NYA 2947 363 297.9 0.123 0.101 121.8
ARI 2870 335 304.0 0.117 0.106 110.2
TBA 3455 358 325.0 0.104 0.094 110.1
KCA 3740 353 323.7 0.094 0.087 109.1
LAN 2766 272 253.8 0.098 0.092 107.2
WAS 2546 305 288.1 0.120 0.113 105.9
SEA 3586 350 331.2 0.098 0.092 105.7
ATL 2983 285 270.5 0.096 0.091 105.4
DET 3106 349 332.2 0.112 0.107 105.0
SFN 1492 150 143.3 0.101 0.096 104.7
BOS 3106 313 302.9 0.101 0.098 103.3
HOU 3304 259 252.8 0.078 0.076 102.5
MIL 3285 263 257.8 0.080 0.078 102.0
ANA 3816 350 343.5 0.092 0.090 101.9
CIN 3424 290 285.0 0.085 0.083 101.8
TEX 3116 309 305.7 0.099 0.098 101.1
MIN 2807 330 329.1 0.118 0.117 100.3
BAL 3638 353 356.7 0.097 0.098 99.0
CHA 3520 310 317.1 0.088 0.090 97.8
CLE 3817 319 329.0 0.084 0.086 97.0
SDN 2880 273 282.5 0.095 0.098 96.6
PIT 1662 128 133.5 0.077 0.080 95.9
FLO 3273 282 294.7 0.086 0.090 95.7
NYN 2664 276 290.0 0.104 0.109 95.2
TOR 3572 297 313.1 0.083 0.088 94.9
CHN 2998 247 262.5 0.082 0.088 94.1
PHI 2507 242 257.1 0.097 0.103 94.1
OAK 3261 285 310.9 0.087 0.095 91.7
SLN 3294 262 287.6 0.080 0.087 91.1
COL 3336 220 263.5 0.066 0.079 83.5

I can’t say I’m surprised to see the Yankees and Rays near the top. Brett Gardner is known for his defense, and Sam Fuld made some amazing plays for the Rays before Desmond Jennings moved into the lineup.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual leftfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 1000 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Brett Gardner 2387 294 237.4 0.123 0.099 123.9
Gerardo Parra 2051 244 216.6 0.119 0.106 112.7
Vernon Wells 2408 241 214.8 0.100 0.089 112.2
Sam Fuld 1505 162 146.7 0.108 0.097 110.4
Josh Hamilton 1472 153 140.7 0.104 0.096 108.7
Ryan Braun 2826 237 219.8 0.084 0.078 107.8
Alex Gordon 3419 313 292.1 0.092 0.085 107.2
Martin Prado 1656 165 158.4 0.100 0.096 104.2
Tony Gwynn 1165 110 107.4 0.094 0.092 102.5
Nolan Reimold 1524 146 143.4 0.096 0.094 101.8
Jonny Gomes 1269 112 110.8 0.088 0.087 101.1
Desmond Jennings 1000 100 98.9 0.100 0.099 101.1
Carl Crawford 2342 235 233.2 0.100 0.100 100.8
Carlos Lee 1509 113 114.6 0.075 0.076 98.6
Delmon Young 1886 208 214.2 0.110 0.114 97.1
Jason Bay 1922 204 210.3 0.106 0.109 97.0
David Murphy 1278 123 127.0 0.096 0.099 96.8
Logan Morrison 2295 197 207.9 0.086 0.091 94.7
Juan Pierre 3282 278 295.0 0.085 0.090 94.2
Michael Brantley 1396 114 121.5 0.082 0.087 93.8
Alfonso Soriano 2062 169 181.2 0.082 0.088 93.3
Raul Ibanez 1983 195 209.1 0.098 0.105 93.2
Eric Thames 1132 91 99.1 0.080 0.088 91.8
Josh Willingham 1862 155 170.5 0.083 0.092 90.9
Ryan Ludwick 1864 155 173.6 0.083 0.093 89.3
Matt Holliday 2310 182 204.0 0.079 0.088 89.2
Carlos Gonzalez 1094 76 87.4 0.069 0.080 86.9

Gardner and Fuld were indeed very good, and Desmond Jennings held his own. I’m impressed with Carlos Lee’s ranking. At this point, I would think he would be old and slow, but it looks like he gets to most of the balls that he should catch. Juan Pierre, Alfonso Soriano, Raul Ibanez, and Matt Holliday all lost a step.

February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012

Changes, Tampa Bay Rays

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Carlos Pena

After a year with the Cubs, Carlos Pena returns to the Rays. Photo: Warren Wimmer/Icon SMI

The Tampa Bay Rays finished the 2011 season 91-71, second in the AL East, earning them the American League Wild Card. They reached the playoffs in the last hours of the last day of the season, coming back from a 7-0 deficit against the Yankees while the Red Sox blew a lead during the greatest night of baseball ever. The Rays then lost to the Texas Rangers in the division series three games to one. The team stood at 53-50 through games of July 27, but finished the season 38-21 to reach the post season.

The position players were solid at the top with Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist combining for 11.4 bWAR, with six players behind them posting bWARs between 2.3 and 3.8. Although B.J. Upton is seen as a bit of a disappointment, his 3.8 bWAR is very solid for the third best position player on a team.

The pitching was just as good at the top, with James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson and David Price combining for 14.0 bWAR, but they did not have the depth backing them up. The Rays were able to cover up a weak bullpen by allowing their starters to go deep into games.

The Rays acquired the following players over the winter:

I like that the Rays management doesn’t fret over a first baseman. They embody being strong up the middle, which allows them to avoid paying huge, long term contracts to big sluggers. They take that money and sign their young stars to long-term deals instead.

Likewise with the bullpen. The team doesn’t look for a star closer or setup man. The front office gives Joe Maddon decent relievers, and expects him to use them in situations that play to their strengths.

None of these acquisitions are going to turn the team into a World Champion. Those players come from the Rays farm system. All of these hitters and pitchers are there to plug holes, and in the case of Molina, make the pitching staff a bit better.

February 29, 2012

Playoff Travel

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With an extra wild card a given for 2012, Dave Cameron discusses the problems caused by already having the regular season and World Series schedule set in stone:

Because the dates for the end of the regular season (October 3rd) and the beginning of the World Series (October 24th) are set in stone and cannot be moved, the league had to figure out how to get the play-in games (and any potential tie-breakers) into a three week window that already needed to house the Division and League Championship series. As Stark noted, the most likely way to handle this issue was to eliminate a day off during the Division Series, so the five game sets would be played out over six days.

I’m all in favor of contracted schedules for playoff series that do more to emulate the pace of the regular season. Teams have been able to manipulate the off days in the postseason schedule to lean heavily on just a few pitchers, and a more compact schedule should make depth more valuable in the postseason. I’d consider that a good thing.

I agree. I would really like to see the second day off eliminated in all series. Every team should get a media before the first game in a town, but after that, just play the games.

February 29, 2012

Olivo on Montero

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Miguel Olivo notes that it took him some time to develop behind the plate:

Montero is expected to be primarily a DH this season, spelling starting catcher Miguel Olivo behind the plate for 20-40 games. Olivo, for his part, preaches patience, pointing out that he also reached the big leagues in his early 20s and admitting that it took him “2 ½-3 years to really realize what I need to do behind the plate.”

“He’s young and he can hit already. That’s not a problem,” Olivo said. “He needs to get better at receiving and blocking, and communicate more with the pitchers. It takes time, though. I had the same problems. … That’s the thing he needs to go through now. Maybe a couple years, one year and he’ll be ready to do it.”

Jesus Montero will be much more valuable to the Mariners as a catcher who can hit. The counter argument is that his bat is so good, why takes years off it by allowing him to catch? I suppose if Miguel Jesus plays his whole career at DH and winds up a .300/.400/.500 hitter, we can have a great argument about a DH making the Hall of Fame.

February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012

Infected Howard

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Ryan Howard will sit for awhile due to an infection:

Ryan Howard has indeed suffered a setback in his recovery from Achilles surgery and will be sidelined indefinitely following a procedure to clean an infection from his original wound.

Foot specialist Mark Myerson performed a “small procedure” Monday to remove the stitches from Howard’s wound, Phillies head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan said. Howard is on antibiotics and should return to camp sometime Wednesday. Myerson is the surgeon who originally operated on Howard’s ruptured left Achilles last October.

Sheridan is unaware of when Howard will return to his rehab program. When asked if the delay would be days or weeks, Sheridan said, “I truly don’t know that answer.”

Wound infections can be nasty. Ryan seemed to be making good progress before this.

February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012

Objective PMR, Rightfielders

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The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at rightfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team rightfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
CLE 3675 356 298.5 0.097 0.081 119.2
CHN 3301 329 296.1 0.100 0.090 111.1
FLO 3130 321 289.3 0.103 0.092 110.9
OAK 2719 331 306.7 0.122 0.113 107.9
SDN 3411 315 293.1 0.092 0.086 107.5
TOR 3101 343 322.8 0.111 0.104 106.2
ARI 3522 322 303.1 0.091 0.086 106.2
MIN 3014 334 316.1 0.111 0.105 105.7
NYA 3035 332 319.4 0.109 0.105 104.0
SLN 3538 313 302.1 0.088 0.085 103.6
HOU 3433 307 297.6 0.089 0.087 103.2
BOS 3337 326 316.8 0.098 0.095 102.9
WAS 2956 329 320.6 0.111 0.108 102.6
CHA 3094 297 292.6 0.096 0.095 101.5
ATL 3449 308 303.6 0.089 0.088 101.4
KCA 3616 348 344.1 0.096 0.095 101.1
TEX 2773 327 329.0 0.118 0.119 99.4
MIL 3439 304 307.7 0.088 0.089 98.8
CIN 3639 306 313.2 0.084 0.086 97.7
DET 3089 304 314.8 0.098 0.102 96.6
ANA 3269 310 322.3 0.095 0.099 96.2
TBA 2890 312 324.2 0.108 0.112 96.2
COL 3521 276 288.3 0.078 0.082 95.7
LAN 3232 278 295.7 0.086 0.091 94.0
PIT 1774 144 155.4 0.081 0.088 92.7
PHI 3117 259 281.1 0.083 0.090 92.1
BAL 3662 312 339.9 0.085 0.093 91.8
SFN 1635 144 159.5 0.088 0.098 90.3
NYN 3354 280 323.1 0.083 0.096 86.7
SEA 3439 278 325.0 0.081 0.095 85.5

The Mets just keep coming up as a bad defensive team. At least that’s an area they likely can improve without a huge cost.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual rightfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 1000 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Kosuke Fukudome 2564 263 221.9 0.103 0.087 118.5
Shin-Soo Choo 1895 172 153.6 0.091 0.081 112.0
Mike Stanton 2644 271 245.6 0.102 0.093 110.3
Chris Denorfia 1090 98 88.9 0.090 0.082 110.2
David DeJesus 1831 231 209.8 0.126 0.115 110.1
Jayson Werth 2411 277 259.4 0.115 0.108 106.8
Jason Heyward 2308 210 197.6 0.091 0.086 106.3
Justin Upton 3346 306 288.0 0.091 0.086 106.3
Nick Swisher 2516 273 259.8 0.109 0.103 105.1
Jose Bautista 2188 233 221.7 0.106 0.101 105.1
J.D. Drew 1387 142 136.0 0.102 0.098 104.4
Nelson Cruz 1667 216 207.0 0.130 0.124 104.4
Michael Cuddyer 1317 139 134.7 0.106 0.102 103.2
Will Venable 1512 133 129.7 0.088 0.086 102.5
Jeff Francoeur 3385 328 320.4 0.097 0.095 102.4
Carlos Quentin 1784 177 174.3 0.099 0.098 101.5
Corey Hart 2627 236 232.7 0.090 0.089 101.4
Ben Francisco 1007 86 86.0 0.085 0.085 100.0
Seth Smith 2037 166 167.5 0.081 0.082 99.1
Torii Hunter 2637 259 262.7 0.098 0.100 98.6
Jay Bruce 3399 285 290.3 0.084 0.085 98.2
Andre Ethier 2507 221 226.7 0.088 0.090 97.5
Hunter Pence 3083 259 271.8 0.084 0.088 95.3
Lance Berkman 2103 160 169.3 0.076 0.081 94.5
Matthew Joyce 2005 211 228.1 0.105 0.114 92.5
Nick Markakis 3544 301 328.9 0.085 0.093 91.5
Carlos Beltran 2039 169 193.4 0.083 0.095 87.4
Ichiro Suzuki 3225 263 306.8 0.082 0.095 85.7
Magglio Ordonez 1056 87 104.7 0.082 0.099 83.1

Asian players round out the extremes, with Shin-Soo Choo and Kosuke Fukudome at the top, and Ichiro at the bottom. This may be another example of Ichiro losing a step as he ages. The good number posted by Jayson Werth may mean he’s not so bad if and when the Nationals stick him in centerfield. Amazingly, Carlos Beltran comes in worse than Lance Berkman. Maybe the Cardinals are moving the wrong player to first base. 🙂

February 29, 2012

Never too Old

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Davey Johnson wants to get in the mix of spring training:

This spring, Johnson brought a cup and jock strap. It’s hanging up in his locker right now. “I’ve been waiting to get in a little better shape before I put on my cup,” Johnson said. “And then I’m going to go out and maybe take some grounders with them. I’m not quite there yet. My arm’s not quite there yet.”

On Tuesday, a representatives from Dinger bats came through the Nationals clubhouse. Johnson sat down with him and asked, “Do you guys make any B267s?” That’s his model – a barrel like Frank Robinson’s combined with Mickey Mantle’s handle. The rep said they don’t produce the B267 anymore, but assurEd Johnson he could make one for him. He asked for 34 inches, 32 ounces. When it arrives, Johnson will have a full set of playing gear.

“Then, at some point in the spring, if I come out early and work on my hitting, see if my eyes could still focus on the ball and I could get the bat on the ball in the area I want it in, then I can show them that I was a player,” Johnson said. “And they’ll say, ‘Well, he wasn’t a very good player.’ I do want to show them that I can’t just talk a good game. I still have a little game.”

Davey needs to hope his team has the same competitive spirit.

February 29, 2012 February 29, 2012

Unneeded Controversy

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Jon Paul Morosi notes that Ryan Braun created more controversy for himself in his press conference by pointing a finger at the sample collector:

Clearly, Braun and Laurenzi have different versions of the truth. I don’t know which is correct. I do know Braun amplified a side of the story that might have gone untold without his hyper-aggressive public stance.

It wasn’t necessary for Braun to incriminate Laurenzi — whether he erred or not. If Laurenzi’s alleged malfeasance wasn’t a necessary component of Braun’s innocence in the hearing room, it didn’t need to be part of his statement to the public.

Braun could have said that he’s never used steroids, that the appeal process proved him right, that an unexplained error was to blame, and that he hopes baseball can make adjustments to the testing program going forward. To fans in Milwaukee — the people he counts on to cheer for the Brewers and eat at Ryan Braun’s Graffito — that would have been more than sufficient.

I kept wondering why Braun referred to his sample as missing during his press conference. This seems to be another case, like Roger Clemens, where a lawyer allows his client to talk to much.

February 29, 2012

Changing Times

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Al Kaline talks about Bryce Harper, and how tough Al had it when he came up in 1954 at a very young age:

“I was not the most welcome person in camp,” Kaline said. “Nobody would go to dinner with me. I was basically isolated. I had a guy grab me by the shirt and say, ‘Don’t ever talk to me. You took my friend’s job. You shouldn’t be here.'”

The baseball world isn’t like that anymore. Harper speaks glowingly about the way the Nationals players have treated him.

“Oh, they’ve taken me in, done so many things for me, telling me about the game,” he said. “They joke around with me, and that’s great.”

The big difference then, was that Kaline had done nothing to earn his spot. He was a bonus baby, and the rules at the time forced teams to keep amateurs signed to high bonuses on the roster. So Al gets a spot on the roster and a lot of money without a day of professional baseball. Some player who likely busted his butt for years lost his job. Trying to control amateur bonuses goes on to this day.

Hat tip, BBTF.

February 28, 2012

Objective PMR, Third Baseman

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The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at third basemen. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team third baseman, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
CLE 3325 454 383.9 0.137 0.115 118.3
PIT 1615 233 202.8 0.144 0.126 114.9
TOR 3190 468 407.2 0.147 0.128 114.9
DET 3105 406 354.6 0.131 0.114 114.5
TBA 3007 427 374.2 0.142 0.124 114.1
ANA 3171 408 364.9 0.129 0.115 111.8
TEX 3038 396 377.9 0.130 0.124 104.8
NYA 3174 379 368.5 0.119 0.116 102.8
CIN 3052 376 367.0 0.123 0.120 102.4
KCA 3202 393 385.4 0.123 0.120 102.0
ARI 2953 398 390.8 0.135 0.132 101.8
BOS 2976 391 385.4 0.131 0.129 101.5
SFN 1447 178 176.8 0.123 0.122 100.7
WAS 3205 383 380.4 0.120 0.119 100.7
SDN 2888 343 352.4 0.119 0.122 97.3
MIL 2959 339 348.9 0.115 0.118 97.2
PHI 3085 399 415.7 0.129 0.135 96.0
LAN 2733 323 337.4 0.118 0.123 95.7
SEA 3326 373 389.8 0.112 0.117 95.7
COL 3037 335 352.8 0.110 0.116 95.0
ATL 2974 343 362.3 0.115 0.122 94.7
SLN 3193 356 391.0 0.111 0.122 91.0
BAL 3162 324 363.2 0.102 0.115 89.2
CHA 3380 369 414.6 0.109 0.123 89.0
OAK 3169 341 387.6 0.108 0.122 88.0
MIN 2963 343 396.4 0.116 0.134 86.5
NYN 3214 354 410.8 0.110 0.128 86.2
FLO 3118 313 368.9 0.100 0.118 84.8
CHN 3021 297 358.8 0.098 0.119 82.8
HOU 2959 305 369.2 0.103 0.125 82.6

I was somewhat worried about Miami having poor left-side defense, but they were already poor last year. Also, Chone Figgins‘s return to third base did not appear to help the Mariner’s defense.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual third baseman, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 1000 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Jack Hannahan 1900 267 212.3 0.141 0.112 125.8
Brandon Inge 1562 219 179.8 0.140 0.115 121.8
Evan Longoria 2305 330 285.1 0.143 0.124 115.7
Alberto Callaspo 2474 327 286.8 0.132 0.116 114.0
Lonnie Chisenhall 1068 150 132.1 0.140 0.124 113.6
Adrian Beltre 2023 277 254.8 0.137 0.126 108.7
Alex Rodriguez 1659 206 192.9 0.124 0.116 106.8
Mike Moustakas 1664 211 203.0 0.127 0.122 103.9
Scott Rolen 1098 133 129.2 0.121 0.118 102.9
Ryan Roberts 1858 244 241.4 0.131 0.130 101.1
Ryan Zimmerman 2065 246 244.1 0.119 0.118 100.8
Wilson Betemit 1582 186 185.6 0.118 0.117 100.2
Placido Polanco 2187 294 295.9 0.134 0.135 99.4
Kevin Youkilis 1913 241 243.3 0.126 0.127 99.1
Casey McGehee 2570 296 300.1 0.115 0.117 98.6
Kevin Kouzmanoff 1213 143 151.9 0.118 0.125 94.2
Chase Headley 1877 213 232.7 0.113 0.124 91.5
David Freese 1497 164 180.7 0.110 0.121 90.8
Chone Figgins 1536 160 180.0 0.104 0.117 88.9
Brent Morel 2456 265 300.4 0.108 0.122 88.2
Daniel Descalso 1397 151 172.4 0.108 0.123 87.6
Mark Reynolds 2144 209 239.5 0.097 0.112 87.3
Ty Wigginton 1146 111 128.3 0.097 0.112 86.5
Danny Valencia 2667 303 355.7 0.114 0.133 85.2
Chris Johnson 1869 195 233.0 0.104 0.125 83.7
Scott Sizemore 1706 176 210.2 0.103 0.123 83.7
David Wright 2102 225 269.2 0.107 0.128 83.6
Chipper Jones 2016 208 249.3 0.103 0.124 83.4
Greg Dobbs 1602 159 195.0 0.099 0.122 81.5
Aramis Ramirez 2590 245 309.3 0.095 0.119 79.2

Jack Hannahan isn’t much of an offensive player, and when that’s the case you better be a wizard with the glove. He fit that bill in 2011. With Inge and Longoria ranked second and third, and I’m very happy with the results this produced. I am somewhat surprised Aramis Ramirez ranked so low, although he is getting up in age. Fangraphs ranks his fielding low, however, so maybe it’s not that surprising.

February 28, 2012

Changes, Seattle Mariners

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Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero hopes to perform a miracle with the Mariners offense. Photo: Anthony J. Causi/Icon SMI

The Seattle Mariners finished the 2011 season 67-95, last in the American League West. The team owned a .500 record on July 5, but went 24-52 the rest of the season, including a 17-game losing streak started on July 6.

The team recieved little production from their position players. Only four of them posted a bWAR over 1.0, none as high as 3.0. Three players with more than 300 PA ended the season in the minus column. The pitching was a different story, with Felix Hernandez, Doug Fister, and Michael Pineda combining for 10.6 bWAR. Of course, two of those three are gone from the team.

The Mariners made the following acquisitions over the winter:

Three of the five pitchers they acquired, including the two potential starters (Iwakuma and Noesi) boast excellent control. They’ll need that as Seattle traded one of their best pitchers for Jesus Montero, the Yankees prize bat. Montero wowed in his 2011 cup of coffee, getting on base and hitting for power, everything the Yankees expected of him. With Jaso in the fold as well, the Mariners have a decent catcher if Montero proves a disaster behind the plate (although at the moment Jesus seems to be penciled in at DH).

The addition of Montero helps make the offense younger as well. They go into 2012 with four position players 26 years old or younger, Mike Carp the youngest of the early to approaching prime group. Chone Figgins or Iciro Suzuki can get on base enough, a maturing Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Montero should be able to drive in a lot of runs. With good pitching, a four-man offense can win a lot of games.

February 28, 2012 February 28, 2012 February 28, 2012

Objective PMR, Centerfielders

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The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at centerfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
PIT 1477 209 184.0 0.142 0.125 113.6
CHA 3206 424 389.9 0.132 0.122 108.7
MIN 2968 459 422.9 0.155 0.142 108.5
MIL 2760 412 381.4 0.149 0.138 108.0
SLN 2792 391 361.9 0.140 0.130 108.0
HOU 2696 388 359.5 0.144 0.133 107.9
COL 2300 388 362.6 0.169 0.158 107.0
PHI 2610 366 343.3 0.140 0.132 106.6
CHN 2882 362 344.6 0.126 0.120 105.1
NYN 2677 389 376.3 0.145 0.141 103.4
SEA 2513 434 421.7 0.173 0.168 102.9
SDN 3021 390 383.4 0.129 0.127 101.7
CIN 2799 377 373.4 0.135 0.133 101.0
ATL 2926 369 367.3 0.126 0.126 100.5
OAK 2361 395 393.6 0.167 0.167 100.4
FLO 3232 384 384.7 0.119 0.119 99.8
DET 3376 422 425.6 0.125 0.126 99.2
ANA 3505 416 420.5 0.119 0.120 98.9
TBA 3204 420 426.9 0.131 0.133 98.4
SFN 1357 195 199.4 0.144 0.147 97.8
BOS 3338 407 420.0 0.122 0.126 96.9
WAS 2771 396 410.4 0.143 0.148 96.5
CLE 3701 390 404.4 0.105 0.109 96.4
TEX 2714 398 415.4 0.147 0.153 95.8
NYA 2624 387 411.3 0.147 0.157 94.1
LAN 2784 337 360.0 0.121 0.129 93.6
BAL 2996 421 452.3 0.141 0.151 93.1
TOR 3064 392 432.2 0.128 0.141 90.7
ARI 3067 382 423.4 0.125 0.138 90.2
KCA 3188 373 426.3 0.117 0.134 87.5

The individuals:

Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Andrew McCutchen 1325 198 167.0 0.149 0.126 118.6
Jon Jay 1033 153 130.9 0.148 0.127 116.9
Denard Span 1251 206 176.5 0.165 0.141 116.7
Jordan Schafer 1225 181 158.4 0.148 0.129 114.2
Carlos Gomez 1119 179 157.2 0.160 0.141 113.8
Dexter Fowler 1656 283 258.0 0.171 0.156 109.7
Nyjer Morgan 1354 202 186.3 0.149 0.138 108.5
Shane Victorino 1998 284 262.7 0.142 0.131 108.1
Marlon Byrd 1884 248 234.0 0.132 0.124 106.0
Ben Revere 1563 237 224.4 0.152 0.144 105.6
Alex Rios 2712 349 332.5 0.129 0.123 105.0
Cameron Maybin 2386 318 303.5 0.133 0.127 104.8
Coco Crisp 1800 311 300.1 0.173 0.167 103.6
Franklin Gutierrez 1310 237 228.9 0.181 0.175 103.5
Angel Pagan 1965 278 269.4 0.141 0.137 103.2
Drew Stubbs 2540 345 339.4 0.136 0.134 101.7
Michael Bourn 2677 354 349.3 0.132 0.130 101.3
Austin Jackson 2915 372 367.6 0.128 0.126 101.2
Rick Ankiel 1449 223 221.9 0.154 0.153 100.5
Chris Coghlan 1273 145 145.7 0.114 0.114 99.5
Colby Rasmus 2124 290 295.8 0.137 0.139 98.0
B.J. Upton 2911 382 391.2 0.131 0.134 97.6
Jacoby Ellsbury 3101 377 386.9 0.122 0.125 97.4
Ezequiel Carrera 1091 112 115.3 0.103 0.106 97.2
Michael Brantley 1108 118 122.0 0.106 0.110 96.7
Peter Bourjos 3054 351 363.3 0.115 0.119 96.6
Grady Sizemore 1138 119 125.0 0.105 0.110 95.2
Curtis Granderson 2457 354 383.5 0.144 0.156 92.3
Adam Jones 2693 377 408.7 0.140 0.152 92.3
Matt Kemp 2680 320 346.9 0.119 0.129 92.2
Chris Young 2939 367 405.8 0.125 0.138 90.4
Rajai Davis 1390 174 194.7 0.125 0.140 89.4
Melky Cabrera 2759 316 371.9 0.115 0.135 85.0

The thing that surprises me the most is Peter Bourjos’s ranking. He’s supposed to be really fast, but it could be his judgement hasn’t developed yet. FanGraphs does rate him much higher, however.

The Giants are going to be in big trouble if it turns out that Melky Cabrera’s hitting was a one-year wonder. They’ll end up with a centerfielder who can neither hit nor field.

February 28, 2012 February 28, 2012

Changes, San Francisco Giants

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Melky Cabrera

The Giants will find out if Melky Cabera's 2011 season was a fluke or a new level of production. Photo: Jeff Moffett/Icon SMI

The San Francisco Giants finished the 2011 season 86-76, 2nd place in the NL West. While the loss of Buster Posey on May 25th hurt the offense, it was apparent at first that the Giants would lose the division because of that. San Francisco stood at 27-21 at that point. Two months later, on July 28th, the team held a 61-44 record and a four game lead in the division. The team fell apart after that, going 10-21 to fall out of the race. In 23 of those games, the team scored three runs or less. Posey’s bat likely would have helped during that stretch.

Not surprisingly, the pitching staff out-performed the position players. The top four starters, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner combined for 14.8 bWAR, while the offense generated just 16.1 bWAR in total. Pablo Sandoval was responsible for 6.1 bWAR so you can see that there wasn’t much backing him up. If three or four position players on the Giants were capable of producing in excess of two WAR, even without Posey the team might have stayed in contention.

The Giants acquired the following players over the winter:

One of Cabrera or Pagan will become the new centerfielder. Which one depends on Melky being able to repeat his power breakout of 2011. Of more importance to the will be players like Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford stepping up in 2012 to establish themselves as major league ballplayers.

The Giants obviously like their core, and they hope that a few tweaks bring them back to the playoffs.

February 28, 2012

Full Joba

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Joba Chamberlain threw off a full mound for the first time since his Tommy John surgery:

“Sixteen pitches, you don’t think that’s much,” Chamberlain said. “But when you haven’t been on a mound since June, your legs get a little tired just from warming up, throwing my long-toss, then my flat ground, before I got on the mound. My legs are a little tired, which is a good feeling. Towards about 10, I could start to feel it. And that’s when you rely on your mechanics and trust your motion. I think I did a pretty good job of that. That’s a part of continuing to build up off the full mound, is getting to 25-30 pitches and getting legs under you.”

I’m very interested to see if Joba returns to close to his 2007 form with his arm fixed.

February 28, 2012

Closer Again

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The Astros moved Brett Myers to the closer role:

Astros manager Brad Mills told reporters veteran starting pitcher Brett Myers would be moved into the closer role, a position he held with the Phillies in 2007. The Astros approached Myers shortly after the start of spring camp to gauge his interest in becoming the closer, and he agreed to the move Monday after consulting with his family and his body.

I would have loved to be a fly on the wall for the discussion between Myers and his body. 🙂

Myers posted his highest K per 9 during his stint as a closer, but his ERA was high, 4.33. Depsite the high strikeout rate, he gave up a good number of hits, walks and home runs. Given the number of options the Astros have for the rotation, and Myers’s experience relieving, the move makes sense.

February 28, 2012

Anti-Yankees Bias

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FanGraphs started releasing their TV commentator ratings, and already I don’t like them. The poll ranked the Yankees team #22, behind the Arizona Diamondbacks duo of Daron Sutton and Mark Grace. I know some people have a problem with Michael Kay, but his color commentary team is first class. I can’t listen to Grace for five minutes. If he’s on the broadcast, I turn to the opposition feed. On top of that, YES bring excellent production values to the table. I don’t think the Yankees have the best broadcast in baseball, but they are certainly in the top five.

I also have to disagree with the White Sox as the worst in baseball. Hawk Harrelson is a huge homer, but he also offers quite a bit of insight. With Steve Stone at his side, you actually learn something about the game.

February 28, 2012

Platooning Bats

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Brennan Boesch uses two bats, one 1/2 inch shorter than the other:

Boesch said he uses two bats — 34 inches and 34 1/2 inches long.

“Sometimes you switch a bat depending on the type of pitcher,” Boesch said. “If he throws real hard and likes to come inside, you shorten the bat up a half-inch. That’s something I’ve always done.

“I’ve been using the 34-inch bat more often this spring. I feel a little quicker with it.”

He’s also been trying out Prince Fielder‘s 33 1/2 inch bat.

February 28, 2012

The Duquette Trade

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Dan Duquette pulled off a great deal in 1997, acquiring Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb. Now, Lowe says Dan didn’t know much about the two Seattle players:

“I laugh about it now,” Lowe said in Fort Myers earlier this month. “When [former Sox GM Dan Duquette] got us, he thought I was left-handed and he saw Varitek and said, ‘Wow, you’re a lot skinnier than I thought.’”

I’ve heard Duquette speak, and he has a very dry sense of humor. I highly suspect he was joking and Lowe didn’t get it.

February 27, 2012

Bad Spring for Sizemores

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With Grady Sizemore set to miss the start of the season, Scott Sizemore goes down for the entire year:

Scott Sizemore injured his left knee during a fielding drill on Saturday and the Athletics just announced that he’ll miss the entire 2012 season due to a torn ACL. Jane Lee of MLB.com reports that the 27-year-old will be reevaluated in two weeks before surgery is scheduled.

That leaves the Athletics down a third baseman. I wonder if they’ll try to trade for Brandon Inge?

February 27, 2012

Not Joshing

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Josh Beckett had choice words for the person who leaked the about goings on in the Red Sox club house:

But in the interview, Beckett said: “Somebody made that stuff up, just like somebody made up that we were doing stuff … This is stupid. I don’t understand what the big deal is. Somebody was trying to save their own ass, and it probably cost a lot of people their asses. The snitching [expletive], that’s [expletive]. It’s not good.

“There’s two things with the clubhouse thing that I have a problem with: If I’m going to say something about the clubhouse, my name is going to be on it. The second thing is you never want to be remembered as that guy because that will follow wherever you go. It’s just mind-boggling to me.”

To his credit, Bobby Valentine didn’t try to spin this.