Ken Griffey, Jr. hopes to revive his past Mariners glory.
Photo: John Cordes/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
- Best lineup: 4.71 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.66 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.50 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.44 runs per game
The Mariners scored 4.14 runs per game in 2008.
As I filled in the lineup, I felt very sad for Mariners fans. There’s no great hitter on this team. With a .361 OBA and a sub .400 slugging percentage, Ichiro is no longer an MVP candidate, just a good leadoff man. Beltre and Branyan offer some power, but they’re both relatively easy outs and their slugging abilities aren’t enough to intimidate other teams into intentional (or semi-intentional) walks. The rest of the team is just below average. This is as close to a replacement level lineup I’ve seen this year.
Why Griffey is slotted so low in the lineup is beyond me. On a team low in both OBA and slugging percentage, the old man offers at least a little of both, better than the two players hitting in front of him. Ken is the draw this season, so the Mariners should want him to get as many at bats as possible.
This was a team that had a lot of room for improvement, and it appears the Seattle front office did very little to make the offense better. They’re going to need the best pitching in the league to compete with this group of hitters.
Other teams in this series:
- Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).
- Chicago Cubs
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago White Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Florida Marlins
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Atlanta Braves
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Colorado Rockies
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Kansas City Royals
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I really cant disagree with this. As “they” say though, baseball games are won with pitching and defense. I’d say the outfield defense is much improved with Gut and if Endy Chavez becomes something more than a fourth outfielder….I think the outfield D is solid. A couple of backup infielders to step in when Jose/Yuni drop the ball (no pun intended)…not bad.
The key is that Gut/Chavez/Balentin/Tui/Clement have not reached their ceilings as far as offense, maybe defense (except for Tui). So, with a couple years of offensive growth and alreay solid defense…this has the makings of a very solid/productive team in the next few years.
By your numbers, the Mariners (using their likeliest line-up) should score over 80 runs more this year than last. I don’t see how the pessimism of your comments makes sense.
In addition to probably scoring more than last year, the Mariners have made HUGE improvements to their outfield defense. I don’t think they’ll contend, but ya never know…
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