March 1, 2012

Objective PMR, First Basemen

1 Reply

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at first basemen. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team first basemen, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
NYN 3180 350 283.0 0.110 0.089 123.7
LAN 2739 289 251.6 0.106 0.092 114.9
OAK 3163 347 306.0 0.110 0.097 113.4
BOS 2977 341 302.4 0.115 0.102 112.8
ANA 3160 341 317.1 0.108 0.100 107.5
SLN 3192 300 281.5 0.094 0.088 106.6
HOU 2958 288 270.1 0.097 0.091 106.6
MIN 3124 308 289.3 0.099 0.093 106.5
CIN 3052 308 294.7 0.101 0.097 104.5
WAS 3166 307 297.1 0.097 0.094 103.3
SFN 1445 142 139.7 0.098 0.097 101.7
COL 3038 305 302.0 0.100 0.099 101.0
CLE 3338 326 325.2 0.098 0.097 100.2
FLO 3111 295 297.4 0.095 0.096 99.2
NYA 3169 297 301.4 0.094 0.095 98.5
SEA 3178 284 292.0 0.089 0.092 97.3
KCA 3210 291 300.5 0.091 0.094 96.8
TBA 2988 298 309.7 0.100 0.104 96.2
PHI 3079 288 305.0 0.094 0.099 94.4
MIL 2966 271 289.0 0.091 0.097 93.8
CHA 3266 278 298.1 0.085 0.091 93.3
CHN 3016 252 275.7 0.084 0.091 91.4
BAL 3161 279 306.4 0.088 0.097 91.1
ATL 2968 268 295.6 0.090 0.100 90.6
TOR 3194 268 297.7 0.084 0.093 90.0
SDN 2887 254 283.6 0.088 0.098 89.6
DET 3103 276 310.2 0.089 0.100 89.0
PIT 1612 128 147.0 0.079 0.091 87.1
ARI 2953 242 278.6 0.082 0.094 86.8
TEX 3038 234 273.3 0.077 0.090 85.6

We found a defense position where the Mets are good! Of course, it’s the least important position in terms of defense. Oakland’s great defense at the position hardly made up for their combined .219/.294/.316 batting line in 2011.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual first basemen, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 1000 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Daric Barton 1227 149 120.2 0.121 0.098 124.0
James Loney 2331 251 212.2 0.108 0.091 118.3
Adrian Gonzalez 2768 316 279.7 0.114 0.101 113.0
Mark Trumbo 2705 302 274.3 0.112 0.101 110.1
Albert Pujols 2732 263 240.0 0.096 0.088 109.6
Todd Helton 2140 226 211.7 0.106 0.099 106.7
Carlos Lee 1240 122 114.4 0.098 0.092 106.6
Joey Votto 2964 302 286.2 0.102 0.097 105.5
Brett Wallace 1634 157 149.2 0.096 0.091 105.3
Carlos Santana 1299 129 123.4 0.099 0.095 104.5
Mark Teixeira 2788 272 265.7 0.098 0.095 102.4
Gaby Sanchez 2899 275 277.3 0.095 0.096 99.2
Eric Hosmer 2482 227 234.3 0.091 0.094 96.9
Justin Smoak 1970 178 183.9 0.090 0.093 96.8
Matt LaPorta 1880 179 185.6 0.095 0.099 96.4
Mike Morse 1593 145 150.4 0.091 0.094 96.4
Ryan Howard 2724 262 274.6 0.096 0.101 95.4
Prince Fielder 2850 263 278.6 0.092 0.098 94.4
Paul Konerko 2221 185 201.0 0.083 0.090 92.1
Carlos Pena 2666 224 243.4 0.084 0.091 92.0
Derrek Lee 1789 166 180.4 0.093 0.101 92.0
Mitch Moreland 1715 142 156.4 0.083 0.091 90.8
Justin Morneau 1074 94 104.6 0.088 0.097 89.9
Casey Kotchman 2492 233 259.5 0.093 0.104 89.8
Adam Lind 2115 178 198.2 0.084 0.094 89.8
Freddie Freeman 2752 243 272.2 0.088 0.099 89.3
Lyle Overbay 1191 93 109.0 0.078 0.092 85.3
Miguel Cabrera 2864 242 286.4 0.084 0.100 84.5

It looks like Prince Fielder will be an improvement over Miguel Cabrera at first base for the Tigers, but no range at first may be terrible range at third base. Albert Pujols may have lost a step, as he is usually head and shoulders above the other first basemen defensively. He remains very good, however, especially given his bat. Adrian Gonzalez may have moved ahead of Albert in terms of total package, offense and defense, among first basemen.

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1 thought on “Objective PMR, First Basemen”

  1. Cody Robinson

    The best first base option for fantansy baseball is Albert Pujols for a couple of reasons. He is the most consistant hitter in the game right now because he can hit for average as well as produce outrageous power numbers. Not to mention, he is very sound defenvisvely, moreso than most people give him credit for. It will be interesting how he responds to playing in the AL, but if he plays like he’s played in the past there is no question is the best option at first-base if not the entire league.

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