Even if Jacoby Ellsbury doesn't live up to his 2011 season, the Red Sox should still produce a potent offense. Photo: Tony Ding/Icon SMI
The series on team offense starts with the Boston Red Sox. Boston finished first in the majors and the American League in offense last season, scoring 5.40 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one Bobby Valentine is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.40 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.29 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 5.04 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.82 runs per game
I like when a manager gets the top and bottom right, even if the order isn’t exactly what the model predicts. Valentine and the LAT agree on the one through five hitters and the six through nine hitters. The first five all get on base well and hit for power well. I suspect that the Marcels underestimate Jacoby Ellsbury a bit, as his last season seemed to portend a new level of talent. I would expect some regression from Ellsbury, but probably not as much as indicated here.
The bottom of the lineup isn’t quite as impressive. Sweeney’s OBP is high enough that he probably should bat ninth, and serve as a secondary lead-off hitter. If Ellsbury is going to hit for power again, it would be helpful to have runners on base when he comes up. If Ellsbury is likely to regress down a bit, Crawford should regress up a bit. If so, batting sixth should be perfect for him. He’ll get plenty of RBI opportunities, and get a chance to set up the bottom of the order. That is, if he wrist heals.
Offense should not be the problem for the Red Sox in 2012.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
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