Game three gets underway just a little before 7 PM EDT Saturday night with the Giants trying to go up 3-0 over Texas in the World Series. A 3-0 lead is almost certain victory for the leading team. Jonathan Sanchez takes on Colby Lewis in the first World Series game in the Rangers’ home park.
Sanchez improved his ERA substantially for the third year in a row. Through the 2008 season, Sanchez owned a 5.18 ERA, striking out 9.1 batters per nine, walking 4.5 per 9 and allowing 0.86 HR per 9. Since then, Jonathan increased hits rates to 9.6/4.6/1.01, but the higher Ks (and likely a better Giants defense) helped keep his hits down and lowered his ERA to 3.61.
Sanchez stand 0-1 in his three playoff starts. He’s shown decent control for him with six walks in 15 1/3 innings but hasn’t allowed a home run while striking out 19. He only lasted two innings against the Phillies in his last start, walking two and hitting a batter, and Bochy got him out of the game before his wildness could cause a real problem. Sanchez also struck out 19 in the post season.
Do to his high K rate this year, neither lefties nor righties hit him well. Left handers hit .181, righties .210. Both sides, however, did a good job drawing walks, bringing their on-base percentage over .300. If Sanchez is wild, Texas can generate enough power in their home park to score enough runs to win this game.
Lewis is also pitching well in the post-season. In three starts he allowed just three runs, and pitched brilliantly in game six of the ALCS against the Yankees, holding them on one run and three hits over eight innings.
Lewis owns a high strikeout rate, although not as high as Sanchez. Unlike Jonathan, however, Colby shows much better control. Lewis is extremely careful with left-handed batters, trying to keep everything away from them.
Colby Lewis pitch frequency 2010 against left-handed batters.
He’s willing to walk lefties rather than give them something to hit, and he walks them almost twice as much as right-handed batters. Colby went 3-1 against National League teams this season, posting a 2.57 ERA (Houston, Milwaukee and the Cubs). They weren’t the strongest teams to face, but the Giants offense, despite the first two games of this series, isn’t that strong either. This should be a very good matchup, and one the Rangers can win if they let Sanchez be wild.
Enjoy!
Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the graph.