The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at catchers. Compared to the players standing behind the pitcher, range is a small component of a catcher’s defensive value. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 750 balls in play. First the teams:
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
BAL | 2754 | 59 | 45.8 | 0.021 | 0.017 | 128.8 |
TBA | 3195 | 53 | 44.2 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 120.0 |
SEA | 3171 | 55 | 46.2 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 119.2 |
PHI | 3274 | 68 | 57.9 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 117.4 |
ANA | 2794 | 49 | 42.5 | 0.018 | 0.015 | 115.3 |
CLE | 2935 | 49 | 42.9 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 114.1 |
TEX | 2721 | 51 | 45.7 | 0.019 | 0.017 | 111.6 |
OAK | 2981 | 55 | 49.8 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 110.4 |
SLN | 3294 | 56 | 50.8 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 110.2 |
FLO | 3326 | 59 | 54.6 | 0.018 | 0.016 | 108.1 |
TOR | 2830 | 44 | 41.4 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 106.2 |
NYN | 3445 | 62 | 59.4 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 104.3 |
CHN | 3084 | 53 | 50.9 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 104.1 |
SFN | 1589 | 28 | 27.0 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 103.8 |
KCA | 2889 | 45 | 43.7 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 103.1 |
MIL | 3374 | 52 | 50.7 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 102.5 |
ARI | 3269 | 61 | 59.9 | 0.019 | 0.018 | 101.8 |
ATL | 3342 | 49 | 48.2 | 0.015 | 0.014 | 101.6 |
LAN | 3015 | 58 | 57.2 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 101.3 |
BOS | 2847 | 44 | 43.9 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 100.3 |
NYA | 2855 | 46 | 47.8 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 96.2 |
HOU | 3148 | 50 | 53.0 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 94.4 |
SDN | 2957 | 49 | 52.0 | 0.017 | 0.018 | 94.3 |
DET | 2573 | 36 | 38.3 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 94.0 |
MIN | 2709 | 43 | 47.2 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 91.1 |
PIT | 1679 | 26 | 28.9 | 0.015 | 0.017 | 90.1 |
WAS | 3303 | 48 | 53.4 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 89.9 |
CIN | 3267 | 50 | 59.4 | 0.015 | 0.018 | 84.2 |
COL | 3401 | 40 | 51.8 | 0.012 | 0.015 | 77.3 |
CHA | 2829 | 34 | 47.3 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 72.0 |
Note that catchers are involved in a small number of plays, so in addition to range being a small part of their value, the number for them are going to be highly variable. That said, the Orioles combination of Matt Wieters and Craig Tatum did a nice job for the Orioles. The White Sox, on the other hand did not get much range from their catchers. A.J. Pierzynski and Ramon Castro were both rather old.
The individuals:
Fielder | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
Rob Johnson | 1025 | 26 | 18.7 | 0.025 | 0.018 | 139.2 |
Lou Marson | 1365 | 28 | 20.2 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 138.3 |
Miguel Olivo | 2331 | 46 | 33.3 | 0.020 | 0.014 | 138.2 |
Mike Napoli | 945 | 21 | 15.4 | 0.022 | 0.016 | 136.8 |
Josh Thole | 1853 | 44 | 32.4 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 135.9 |
J.P. Arencibia | 2048 | 39 | 30.2 | 0.019 | 0.015 | 129.1 |
Hank Conger | 845 | 16 | 12.8 | 0.019 | 0.015 | 125.2 |
Geovany Soto | 2218 | 44 | 36.2 | 0.020 | 0.016 | 121.5 |
Matt Wieters | 2128 | 41 | 34.5 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 118.9 |
Miguel Montero | 2641 | 56 | 48.4 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 115.6 |
Carlos Ruiz | 2339 | 47 | 42.3 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 111.2 |
Ramon Hernandez | 1491 | 29 | 26.3 | 0.019 | 0.018 | 110.1 |
Russell Martin | 2075 | 37 | 33.6 | 0.018 | 0.016 | 110.1 |
Rod Barajas | 1522 | 32 | 29.2 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 109.6 |
Kurt Suzuki | 2327 | 43 | 39.3 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 109.5 |
J.R. Towles | 857 | 16 | 14.8 | 0.019 | 0.017 | 108.0 |
Yorvit Torrealba | 1569 | 29 | 27.0 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 107.3 |
Kelly Shoppach | 1384 | 22 | 20.6 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 106.7 |
Brian McCann | 2450 | 37 | 34.7 | 0.015 | 0.014 | 106.5 |
John Jaso | 1329 | 19 | 17.9 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 106.2 |
John Buck | 2572 | 45 | 42.5 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 105.9 |
Dioner Navarro | 912 | 18 | 17.2 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 104.9 |
Jeff Mathis | 1341 | 22 | 21.3 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 103.3 |
Yadier Molina | 2604 | 41 | 40.2 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 102.1 |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 1734 | 27 | 26.6 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 101.5 |
Matt Treanor | 1144 | 17 | 17.1 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 99.5 |
Alex Avila | 2058 | 30 | 30.7 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 97.8 |
Humberto Quintero | 1438 | 23 | 23.8 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 96.8 |
Jason Varitek | 1069 | 16 | 16.8 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 95.4 |
David Ross | 850 | 12 | 12.6 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 95.3 |
Carlos Santana | 1570 | 21 | 22.7 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 92.5 |
Drew Butera | 1341 | 21 | 23.3 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 90.2 |
Wilson Ramos | 2216 | 31 | 35.2 | 0.014 | 0.016 | 88.0 |
Brayan Pena | 1068 | 13 | 15.4 | 0.012 | 0.014 | 84.7 |
A.J. Pierzynski | 1972 | 27 | 32.6 | 0.014 | 0.017 | 82.9 |
Jonathan Lucroy | 2365 | 29 | 35.1 | 0.012 | 0.015 | 82.6 |
Carlos Corporan | 815 | 11 | 13.8 | 0.013 | 0.017 | 80.0 |
Chris Iannetta | 2208 | 26 | 33.2 | 0.012 | 0.015 | 78.3 |
Ronny Paulino | 1239 | 15 | 20.3 | 0.012 | 0.016 | 73.9 |
Nick Hundley | 1271 | 17 | 23.0 | 0.013 | 0.018 | 73.8 |
Koyie Hill | 756 | 8 | 12.9 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 62.0 |
Ryan Hanigan | 1530 | 16 | 28.3 | 0.010 | 0.018 | 56.6 |
Jose Molina | 782 | 5 | 11.2 | 0.006 | 0.014 | 44.5 |
You can see that indeed, Wieters did a good job behind the plate, although Miguel Olivo comes out on top among starters. Mike Napoli’s good result shows how a small sample size can fool you, however. I don’t think most observers seem him as a great defensive catcher. Take this particular category with a grain of salt.
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