Lastings Milledge
Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used Washington’s numbers from 2008. The results:

• Best lineup: 4.74 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.54 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.20 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.37 runs per game

The Nationals scored 3.98 runs per game in 2008.

There was one change I made to the probable lineup found at CBSSports.com. Manny Acta announced Lastings Milledge will bat leadoff, so the probably lineup reflects that. It’s not a bad move, but I’m not sure Lastings is thinking correctly about his approach:

Milledge already knows his measuring sticks: Hits, stolen bases, and runs. He guessed that he won’t draw too many walks, “because now, they have to come after me… Last year I swung at a lot of bad pitches, maybe because I was in the three-four hole and they wanted to throw a lot of breaking balls and changeups and kind of fool around with me.”

Acta, who knows better, should explain to Milledge that avoiding outs is more important than getting hits. If Lastings lays off the bad pitches, the walks will come whether he wants them or not.

The Nationals, with Milledge leadoff or not, look like they’ll put an improved team on the field. Dunn brings much more power to first base, while Willingham takes an offensive black hole in leftfield and turns it into a productive position. I doubt they’ll lead the leauge in runs scored, but they’re solid 1-6 in OBA, so they shouldn’t be as close to the bottom of the league as they were in 2008.

Other teams in this series:

• Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• Minnesota Twins
• Detroit Tigers
• Chicago White Sox
• Cleveland Indians
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• New York Yankees
• Baltimore Orioles
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Florida Marlins
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Atlanta Braves
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Colorado Rockies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Houston Astros
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Kansas City Royals
• Seattle Mariners
• Oakland Athletics

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