Prince Fielder should be a big reason the Tigers score more runs this season. Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit finished fourth in the majors and the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.86 runs per game. There is a huge gap between the top three teams and the rest of the league. The Tigers finished 0.4 runs per game behind the third place Rangers.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one Jim Leyland is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.43 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.27 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 5.08 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.80 runs per game
If you compare these numbers to Texas (see spreadsheet link below), the Tigers are better with their best lineup, but the projected lineup and worst lineup are about the same as Texas. It looks like with a slightly better order, Leyland could squeeze a few more runs out of the team.
I like that Jim uses Andy Dirks ninth and Ryan Raburn ninth as a secondary lead-off man. The worst hitter really should go in the eighth slot. The LAT wants Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder at the top of the order. You see the LAT make decisions like this quite often. Sluggers who get on base so much more than anyone else on the team act as table setters. It makes a lot of sense. These are the slots that receive the most plate appearances. By putting .400 OBP offensive players in those slots, teams minimize the number of outs, expanding the offensive context for the whole team. By getting on base so often, these hitters would make the rest of the lineup more productive.
I also suspect that those two hitters at the top would make pitchers work a lot harder, especially in the first inning. I’d love to see a manager give this a try sometime.
All that aside, it appears the Tigers are poised to score many more run this year than last. With their excellent pitching staff, they could wrap up the AL Central early this season.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
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