Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

Manny Machado offers the Orioles years of production at third base. Photo: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished fifteenth in the majors and ninth in the American League in 2012 with 4.40 runs scored per game. (That’s the same runs per game as Oakland, but Oakland scored one more run.)

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Buck Showalter may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.63
Probable lineup: 4.40
Worst lineup: 4.20
Regressed lineup: 4.17

The problem with analyzing the Orioles lineup sits at the top of the order. Brian Roberts comes off two injury filled years in which his production suffered greatly. The Marcels, therefore, calculate low rate stats for him. If Showalter thought Brian would perform that poorly in the lead-off slot, he would not bat him there. In fact, Brian played well in spring training so far, posting a .395 OBP in 43 PA. While we should have very little confidence in that number long term, it’s a reason to give Roberts a chance at the leadoff slot. If you see Roberts as .345/.400, he makes a lot more sense at the top of the lineup, although the LAT really likes Nick Markakis leading off.

If Roberts stays healthy, this is a solid but not spectacular lineup. They’ll need to repeat their one-run game performance from 2012 to have a shot at the playoffs, or get really good pitching.

I’m excited to see what Manny Machado can do as a 20 year old. He showed good power but little selectivity as a 19-year-old. He has a lot of room to grow, and the fact that he is a starter at a young age bodes well for his career.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

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March 23, 2013

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