The Blue Jays boast the best hitter in the American League in Jose Bautista. Photo: John Sommers/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto finished sixth in the majors and fifth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.59 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one John Farrell is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.20 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.06 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.64 runs per game
The LAT really wants Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie at the top of the order. Their projected OBPs and slugging percentages are so far ahead of every one on the team that they really should get as many plate appearances as possible.
Batting Lawrie seventh, however, may not be that bad an idea. His projections have a low confidence since he has yet to play a full major league season. If he ends up being an outstanding hitter, then Farrell would be wise to put his two outstanding sluggers together in the batting order. Why not bat Brett second, and move Kelly Johnson to ninth as the secondary lead-off hitter?
Even with Lawrie low in the order this looks like an improved Jays lineup. Everyone can do something well. The players with low OBPs at least hit for power. Their projections are right up with the Yankees and Red Sox, which should help put them in contention in the tough AL East.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
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