Category Archives: Uncategorized

July 30, 2013 July 29, 2013

Will the DBacks Deal?

Arizona general manager Kevin Towers likes his team the way it is, but he is setting up a war room in Tampa Bay.

“Makeup-wise, chemistry-wise, I feel very strongly about the guys we’ve got in our clubhouse,” Towers said. “Probably this year more so than some of my prior years, I don’t know how much I really want to mess with that. I think over the long run these guys will persevere and end up hopefully on top of this division.”

Towers says he’d like some bullpen help, but a slugging outfielder would improve the offense.

July 28, 2013

Terrible Tino

Tino Martinez resigned as hitting coach for the Marlins.

One Marlins player, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, said Martinez has been verbally abusive to players on a number of occasions since the start of spring training in February. A few players have complained to Redmond about Martinez’s behavior.

“It’s all shocked everybody,” the player said. “He uses intimidation. It’s been a problem since day one.”

According to sources who have witnessed Martinez’s profanity-laced eruptions, other players who have been attacked verbally by Martinez include outfielder Justin Ruggiano, infielder Chris Valaika and minor-league infielder Matt Downs. Another source said the list of players is much larger than that.

Wow. Tino always came off as one of the good guys.  It appears Loria refuse to deal with this early.

July 25, 2013

Fick Took a Prick (or two)

Former player Robert Fick admits he used steroids twice:

“I’ve tried it,” Fick said. “Two times.”

On both occasions, Fick said he was recovering from a shoulder injury, including a stint in 2000 when he separated his shoulder as a Tiger.

“They called it a third-degree separation,” he said. “I got on some juice and next thing you know, in three or four weeks, I was back in the lineup.”

If players had only used these drugs to get back from injuries quickly, we may not have seen the outrage that exists today. It’s worth the read to see that Fick thinks the game is much cleaner than it was back when he was playing.

July 23, 2013

Closer Trade

The Brewers send Francisco Rodriguez to the Orioles for Nick Delmonico.

The 31-year-old Rodriguez has revitalized his career the past three years in Milwaukee, going 1-1 with 10 saves and a 1.09 ERA in 25 appearances this season.

Delmonico is only 20 years old, with a low BA but a high OBP. That indicates he has a good eye for the strike zone, but doesn’t do a great job making contact. He has time to learn that, however. The good eye might be harder to learn.

July 20, 2013 July 20, 2013 June 24, 2013

Games of the Day

Monday offers for games, two on the east coast at 7 PM EDT, two in southern California at 10 PM EDT.

The Indians and Orioles start the day with Ubaldo Jimenez facing Zach Britton. Both teams stand in second place in their divisions, but the Orioles hold a much better record. The Indians offense is struggling in June, as the team batting average and slugging percentage plunged. They’re especially bad with men on base. The Orioles are 11-9 this month despite being outscored 102-93. The team keeps winning the close games.

Toronto travels to Tampa Bay to try to extend their winning streak to 12 games. Both teams are five games out of first place, but Toronto’s slightly better winning percentage puts them in fourth place. Esmil Rogers takes on Jeremy Hellickson. Rogers remains more effective as a starter than a reliever this season, having more strikeouts in fewer innings in a starting role. Hellickson’s hits allowed spiked this season despite improved strikeout and walk numbers.

The Giants visit the Dodgers with Madison Bumgarner battling Hyun-Jin Ryu. Bumgarner is a Dodgers killer with a 6-2 record in nine games and a 2.53 ERA. He walks 1.9 LA batters per nine innings. Ryu lost both his starts to the Giants, allowing 18 hits in 12 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Phillies send Cliff Lee against the Padres and Eric Stults. Lee has been a bright spot in a disappointing Phillies season. He owns a 1.88 ERA on the road, and allowed just one of his seven home runs away from Philadelphia, despite more road than home innings. Stults is experiencing a great June, with a 1.84 ERA. He walked just three batters in 29 1/3 innings this month.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2013

Games of the Day

Matt Moore tries to get his groove back as the Rays open a four game series in New York against the Yankees. Andy Pettitte takes the hill for the Bronx Bombers. During his last three starts, Moore lost both his control and his ability (or luck) to prevent hits. His 13.86 ERA in that time is a result of 26 hits and 11 walks in 12 1/3 innings. Pettitte pitches poorly at Yankee Stadium this season, lasting a bit over five innings a start. His five K/BB on the road is just 1.3 at home.

Roy Oswalt returns to the majors as the Rockies face Jordan Zimmermann and the Nationals. Last season with Texas, Oswalt posted excellent K and BB numbers, but couldn’t keep the ball in the park. Zimmermann only allowed one of his eight home runs at home this season. With an opposition OBP of .247, only one of those eight HR came with men on base.

Finally, first place teams battle in Detroit as the Red Sox send John Lackey against Jose Alvarez. Lackey lacks skills on the road this season, with seven of his nine home runs coming on the road and 20 of his 28 runs allowed. Alvarez made a great start in his MLB debut, walking one and striking out seven in six innings of work.

Enjoy!

June 18, 2013

June Bug

For the second year in a row, Albert Pujols returns to Albert Pujols form in June after a slow start to the season. In 2012, he posted a .243/.290/.408 slash line through May 31, following up with a .326/.409/.568 June. This season, the slash line through May 31 was a bit better, .246/.318/.415, but still not Albert Pujols. With four hits Monday night, Albert is now .333/.391/.567 this June. That was his fourth multi-hit game in his last five starts, and his fifth of the month.

Both seasons, the slow starts by the star slugger helped put the Angels in an early hole. They nearly climbed out last season, and we’ll see if they are capable of making another run. They are ten games back, but that gap can be closed this early in the season.

June 13, 2013

Is There a Rachel Involved?

Ross Ohlendorf and Ross Detwiler are linked in history:

An unusual but funny statistic emerged from Ohlendorf’s start: the Nationals became the first team in major league history to use two players who employ the name Ross in the same season. (Ohlendorf goes by Ross even though Curtis is his first name and Ross is his middle name.).

Ohlendorf said he turned to Ross Detwiler on the bench during the game to point out how unusual it was that two pitchers named Ross would start back-to-back games. Ohlendorf also remembered an interesting nugget: Detwiler’s first major league start back on May 18, 2009 against the Pirated featured two starting pitchers named Ross; Ohlendorf was the opposing starter that game, and won.

When Ohlendorf retires, he should join ESPN’s research department. I hear there is an opening.

The post is also worth the read as Ohlendorf explains how he developed the windup.

June 6, 2013

Games of the Day

This might be a good day for fans who like offense, as there are very few pitchers with low ERAs working on Thursday. The best pitching match-up of the day takes place in Boston where Derek Holland battles Jon Lester. Holland dialed up his strikeouts this season and cut his home run rate with it. After giving up 32 homers in 175 1/3 innings in 2012, he’s allowed just four dingers in 73 2/3 innings in 2013. He reduced both his percentage of fly balls, and the percentage of those that leave the park. Lester only made half his starts at home this season, but thrived at Fenway with a 2.51 ERA, versus 4.11 on the road. The only real difference is home runs, however, one at Fenway and four on the road.

The most evil game of the day takes place in Kansas City where Mike Pelfrey of the Twins faces Wade Davis. Both own ERAs over 6.00, but Pelfrey comes in the game with a 6.66 mark. (You can generate your own random evil player here.) Pelfrey pitches to contact, and gets hammered for doing so. Opponents own a .332/.387/.521 slugging percentage against him, which would earn most players a long term, nine-figure contract. Davis pitches well in terms of the three-true outcomes, with an xFIP about two runs lower than his ERA. Looks like the Royals defense doesn’t help him much.

Enjoy!

June 5, 2013 June 4, 2013

Games of the Day

Tampa Bay at Detroit provides one of the best pitching match-ups of the night as undefeated Matt Moore takes on strikeout artist Anibal Sanchez. Part of Moore’s 8-0 record comes from his outstanding 2.18 ERA. That ERA seems low, however, given his 28 walks and seven home runs allowed in 62 IP. Indeed, his FIP and xFIP stand about two runs higher. Moore allowed very few hits this season; his BA allowed comes in at .178 with a BABIP of .201. On top of that, opponents hit just .071 against him with runners in scoring position, 3 for 42. I suspect the Tampa Bay defense helped him a lot. If not, it’s going to be ugly when he regresses to his mean. Sanchez is the opposite, with an ERA higher than his fielding independent stats should indicate. He’s also allows a slightly higher BA with men in scoring position than he does overall. Tigers pitchers need to strikeout out a ton of batters to make up for the defense.

Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha puts his whole body into a pitch. Photo: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Youngsters Tyler Skaggs and Michael Wacha both make their second starts of 2013 as the Diamondbacks continue their series with the Cardinals. Both are seasonal age 21 and were born in July 1991, less than two weeks apart. Skaggs was unimpressive in six starts in 2012, but showed outstanding power and control in the minors. He struck out nine (but walked three) in six shutout innings against Texas in his first start of this season. Wacha allowed a run and two hits in seven innings against the Royals in his MLB debut. The Diamondbacks offense should be more of a challenge.

Finally, the White Sox send Jake Peavy against the King in Seattle, Felix Hernandez. Peavy’s 3.62 ERA is mostly the result of him allowing nine homers in 64 2/3 innings, although six of those were solo shots. Felix was knocked around by the White Sox in his first start against them. He only struck out three in 6 1/3 innings, and the White Sox putting the ball in play led to six hits and four runs.

Enjoy!

May 26, 2013

Pitching as Expected

Stephen Strasburg performed like the ace he should be, striking out nine without a walk as the Nationals beat the Phillies 6-1. The only run against him came on a balk. With only five hits allowed in eight innings, Strasburg used the strikeouts to dominate. He also induced two double plays, bringing his season total to eight.

Strasburg also got back to being a double threat, as he collected two hits at the plate.

May 23, 2013

Biblical Transactions

Jesus Montero is dying for his sins, while Jesus Sucre rises.

The general idea here is simple. Jesus Montero has been a bad hitter and he has been a bad catcher. Now he will begin the process of forgetting everything he’s learned about catching, so as to better focus on the hitting part. In Tacoma, it’s expected that Montero will DH and play first base, and so while I’m sure this is a shot to his pride, having been a backstop for so long and all, demotions are humbling and all of Montero’s big-league plate appearances are humbling, too. He’s been a top prospect on account of his bat. One could consider this a move on the Mariners’ part to shine a spotlight on that, only. People have seen this coming for years. Maybe not the bit where Montero gets demoted, but definitely the bit where he doesn’t catch anymore.

Despite the injury to Michael Pineda, there’s still a shot the Yankees come out on top in this deal.

May 4, 2013

Games of the Day

The Reds and Cubs offer a great pitching duel as rookie Tony Cingrani takes on Chicago ace Jeff Samardzija. Cingrani is blowing away the opposition with 28 K in just 20 innings of work. Left handers can’t touch him, and right-handers hit like Karen Valentine against him. Jeff is pitching much the same way, but the Cubs scored just 15 runs in his six starts.

Stephen Strasburg takes on Jeff Locke as the Nationals continue their series with the Pirates. Strasburg is posting excellent three-true outcome numbers this season, but like Samardzija, he’s not getting any run support. The Nationals scored just 11 runs for him so far. His strikeouts are down, and he seems to no longer be Baseball Jesus. When Strasburg first went to spring training, hitters would get in the box against him, watch a pitch go by, shake their heads and say, “Jesus!” I don’t see that when I watch Stephen this year. He’s still very good, but I don’t see the wow factor pitch after pitch. Of course, if someone can post that kind of control without a wow factor, it gives one an idea of how good he is. Locke brings 13 consecutive scoreless inning into the game. He allowed just five hits in that time, and his strikeouts are inching up.

Finally, for those who like mature pitchers, John Lackey faces Alexi Ogando as the Red Sox battle the Rangers. Lackey’s injury set back seemed minor as he came back with a strong performance against the Astros. Ogando makes just his second appearance at home this season. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings in his first one, as he was a bit wild.

Enjoy!

May 4, 2013

Hanley Being Hurt

Hanley Ramirez suffered another injury Friday night:

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez was helped off the field in the top of the sixth inning Friday night of a 2-1 loss to the Giants with what the team later called a left hamstring injury.

Ramirez, aboard on a leadoff walk, grabbed the back of his left leg just above the knee after getting thrown out sliding into third as he tried to go from first to third on A.J. Ellis‘ single. Replays showed he might have hurt his hamstring rounding second base. He was helped off the field by the athletic trainers.

Ramirez played just four games for the Dodgers this season, but played them well.

April 21, 2013

Zim Sits

Ryan Zimmerman takes to the disabled list with a bad hamstring. That gives an opening for Anthony Rendon to show what he can do in the majors:

The 22-year-old Rendon was a first-round draft pick in 2011. He is hitting .292 with two homers and seven RBIs at Harrisburg. Johnson said he expected Rendon would start in Zimmerman’s place.

You would think after all these years of sabermetrics permeating baseball the AP could quote more than the triple crown batting stats. Rendon owns a .462 OBP and a .500 slugging percentage at AA this season. In his 57 minor league games he’s batting .249, but with a .391 OBP and a .492 slugging percentage. Of his 45 minor league hits, 24 have gone for extra bases. He joins the Natoinals at seasonal age 23, playing mostly third base, but with a game or two at second and short. The fact that the teams are willing to move him to those positions indicates he’s likely a good defender at third.

So what happens if he comes up and hits? Ryan Zimmerman is signed through 2019. The Nationals could move Zimmerman to first, especially if he keeps making bad throws. That would mean moving Adam LaRoche. That’s quite doable. Adam has a reasonable two-year contract. It seems some team is always looking for a first baseman with left-handed power. Too much talent is a good problem.

March 25, 2013

Team Offense, San Diego Padres

The series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished tied for twenty third in the majors and tied for tenth in the National League in 2012 with 4.02 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Bud Black may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the Padres staff numbers from 2012. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.04
  • Probable lineup: 3.78
  • Worst lineup: 3.50
  • Regressed lineup: 3.73

While these numbers are no better than last season, there are two big caveats. The first is Chase Headley‘s injury. The above calculation is based on Logan Forsythe playing third base. The second is that Jedd Gyorko is a true rookie, so his numbers are league average. If we place Headley in the order and improve Gyroko a bit, scoring goes up by about 0.2 runs per game. If Gyorko turns out to be a monster, the Padres might even have a real offense.

Power is always going to be tough for this team, but if Yonder Alonzo and Carlos Quentin can generate a little more, the Padres could have four solid hitters when Headley returns. With that park, they don’t need much more to win.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

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March 10, 2013

Pledge Drive Update

Nine people donated a total of $285 dollars over the first nine days of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Won’t you join them?

Since 2005, I’ve asked for readers to support the site with a donation. Since I’ve needed to scale back my work here due to taking a full time job, I thought that scaling back the pledge drive would be appropriate. The main cost of running the site is the data for the Day by Day Database. If you are a user of that tool, please consider an update to help defray the cost.

Larger donations earn you a premium. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Peter Gammons and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

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January 16, 2013

Nats Bullpen

Adam Kilgore takes a deeper look at what the signing of Rafael Soriano means for the Nationals bullpen.

The bullpen is crowded, and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out during spring training. Unless they make a trade, the Nationals have nine relievers to feasibly fill seven spots: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Henry Rodriguez, Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, Zach Duke, Christian Garcia and Bill Bray, who signed a minor league deal but has a real shot to make it as a second left-hander.

As I mentioned last night, with the quality of the starting and relief staff, there’s really no reason for a seven-man bullpen. Maybe the Nats could carry a third catcher, or a powerful left-handed pinch-hitter who could also serve as a real designated hitter when the team plays in American League parks. Is there a Rusty Staub out there? Davey Johnson liked to platoon in his days with the Mets. That roster spot could be used as a platoon option as well.

January 15, 2013

Exciting Wins

Excerpts from Terry Francona‘s new book, Francona: The Red Sox Years, are coming out. It looks like we’ll get a good view of the disconnect between baseball operations and ownership:

“Werner talked about slumping television ratings and whined, ‘We need to start winning in more exciting fashion,’” Francona recalls in the excerpt.

Later, he quotes Epstein as saying, “They told us we didn’t have any marketable players, that we needed some sizzle. We need some sexy guys. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is like an absurdist comedy. We’d become too big. It was the farthest thing from what we set out to be. … (That) was evidence to me of the inherent tension between building a baseball operation the way I thought was best and the realities of being in a big market … which had gotten bigger than any of us could handle.”

As president in Chicago, rather than GM, Theo should have more control over this aspect of the team.

This bit does raise an interesting point, however. Sometimes great teams can be boring. They tend to win big, so there aren’t many opportunities for exciting finishes. If you measure success as winning championships, that’s exactly the kind of team fans should desire.

On the other hand, players with sizzle aren’t always winning players. Bo Jackson was one of my favorites to watch, because he might do something amazing. He was never really a superstar in terms of stats. He helped a team, but he didn’t carry a team.

I suspect what Werner wanted were great but controversial players. They used to have one in Manny Ramirez.

January 6, 2013 January 5, 2013 December 31, 2012 November 28, 2012

Upton Switches Leagues

The Braves land B.J. Upton for $15 million a year for five years, a total of $75.25 million. Nice job by Cork Gaines:

So that 5-year, $75.0 million contract I predicted back in September? My bad.

I assume this means the Braves won’t be bringing back Michael Bourn.

It took a deal reported to be worth $75.25 million and five years for the Braves to get their man, but he’s an ideal fit in Atlanta. Indeed, better than Michael Bourn, who manned the position for the past season and a half before he became a free agent and also was considered a possibility to return.

Mainly, Upton’s right-handed bat helps balance a lineup that leans towards the left, and was even more tilted with the lefty Bourn. Upton, at 28, also is nearly two years younger than Bourn, who turns 30 on Dec. 27.

Bourn, however, produced more value over the last few years than Upton. So this is not an improvement for the team. I hope the Braves aren’t putting too much emphasis on B.J.’s power surge at the end of the 2012 season. It came at the cost of a high number of outs.

The Braves did not over-pay here, but they didn’t improve the team. They’re getting what they pay for.

November 22, 2012

Going Gomes

The Boston Red Sox signed Jonny Gomes to a two-year deal worth $10 million. He represents a low-cost insurance policy on David Ortiz. Given Ortiz’s age and the major injury he suffered in 2012, Gomes can step in as the DH if something happens to David. He could also platoon if Ortiz returns to his 2008-2010 numbers against left-handers. Jonny also gives the Red Sox another option in the outfield.

Gomes’s OBP is okay, about league average, but he does hit the ball hard with a career isolated power of .211. He should bang some balls off and over the wall at Fenway.

October 2, 2012 September 21, 2012

Late Gains

The Brewers and Dodgers both game on the Cardinals with last at bat wins on the road. The Brewers scored three times in the top of the ninth against Tyler Clippard to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 win. Ryan Braun singled and collected two doubles, and the single drove in the tying run.

Edwin Jackson pitched eight strong innings, walking none and striking out six.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Reds ended regulation tied at one. Matt Kemp singled with the bases loaded and two out in the tenth, and the Dodgers win 3-1. Kemp is getting his stroke back, as he went three for five in the game.

Both winning teams gain on the Cardinals, as the massive tie scenario has a great day in the National League.