The series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished tied for twenty third in the majors and tied for tenth in the National League in 2012 with 4.02 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Bud Black may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the Padres staff numbers from 2012. That information produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.04
• Probable lineup: 3.78
• Worst lineup: 3.50
• Regressed lineup: 3.73

While these numbers are no better than last season, there are two big caveats. The first is Chase Headley‘s injury. The above calculation is based on Logan Forsythe playing third base. The second is that Jedd Gyorko is a true rookie, so his numbers are league average. If we place Headley in the order and improve Gyroko a bit, scoring goes up by about 0.2 runs per game. If Gyorko turns out to be a monster, the Padres might even have a real offense.

Power is always going to be tough for this team, but if Yonder Alonzo and Carlos Quentin can generate a little more, the Padres could have four solid hitters when Headley returns. With that park, they don’t need much more to win.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

• Introduction
• Texas Rangers
• New York Yankees
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Colorado Rockies
• Chicago White Sox
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Boston Red Sox
• Washington Nationals
• Detroit Tigers
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Baltimore Orioles
• Minnesota Twins
• Atlanta Braves
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Kansas City Royals
• Cincinnati Reds
• Cleveland Indians
• Pittsburgh Pirates

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