The series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati finished tied for seventh in the majors and tied for second in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.54 runs per game. They scored the same number of runs as the Colorado Rockies.

The Reds hope Zack Cozart can maintain a high batting average over a full season. Photo: Warren Wimmer/Icon SMI

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Dusty Baker is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The numbers for pitchers represent the Reds pitchers batting in 2011. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.79 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.54 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.23 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.25 runs per game

This is one of the better lineups I’ve seen Dusty construct. Note that at the 13th best lineup, we get the same division of top four/bottom five. Given the parameters most managers use for putting together a batting order, a change I’d make is one the LAT likes, flipping the pitcher and Ryan Hanigan. I understand batting a catcher with a potentially high OBP low in the order. If he’s batting that low in the order, however, the manager might as well pencil him in the ninth spot and try to set up the three and four hitters for a few more RBI. I’d also flip Chris Heisey and Scott Rolen putting more power behind Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the two best hitters at getting on base.

None of these are game changers, however. It strikes me the Reds lack a bit in the OBP department, and there’s not much power there for players in a good home run ballpark. I doubt this offense will set the league on fire.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies

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