The Diamondbacks seem to be impressed with Aaron Hill's small sample size OBP from 2011. Photo: Ric Tapia/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona finished ninth in the majors and fourth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.51 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Kirk Gibson is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The numbers for pitchers represent the Diamondbacks pitchers batting in 2011. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.62 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.48 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.27 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.20 runs per game
The most interesting player in this lineup is Aaron Hill. Marcels project him to a .299 OBP. He posted that number in 2011, but in his short stint with the Diamondbacks, he got on base at a .386 clip. At the moment, Gibson seems to believe he’ll be closer to that number than his .321 career mark. In the last two seasons, however, Aaron’s mark is at .285.
Stephen Drew makes more sense at the top of the order, as he’s capable of posting good OBPs when he’s healthy. Basicaly, Gibson likes his potential at the top of the order rather than a likely projection. If Gibson is right, look the Diamondbacks to easily beat these projections.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
- Explanation
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Detroit Tigers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Colorado Rockies
- Cincinnati Reds
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