Ryan Ludwick hopes to supply some needed power to the Padres lineup. Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished twenty second in the majors and twelfth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.10 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Bud Black is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system, and I used the 2010 results for the Padres pitchers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.38 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.23 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.98 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.06 runs per game

The main agreement between Black and the LAT is Ryan Ludwick batting fourth. Otherwise, there is little in common between the projected order and the lineups the LAT likes. What’s interesting to me, however, is that Bud Black penciled in Orlando Hudson third. That struck me as something the tool would do, and indeed it used Chase Headley, Jason Bartlett and Hudson third, all of whom project to similar numbers. I wonder if someone convinced Black to use a less powerful hitter third? Of course, that works better if you also bat the pitcher eighth.

Looking at the lineup, the strength of the team is the ability of the batters to get on base. They’re not great, but only Nick Hundley projects to a poor OBP. If these number hold up, I suspect the Padres will finish slightly above average as a team in OBP. The question then becomes, can they generate enough power to move those base runners around. Maybe at some point Kyle Blanks can rejoin the team and provide some more pop.

This isn’t a bad offense for a team that plays in PETCO park. Power doesn’t help much there, so extending the offensive context by getting on base is important. This team should score about the same as the 2010 team, so then it comes down to the pitching to keep the team in the game.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• New York Yankees
• Boston Red Sox
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Texas Rangers
• Minnesota Twins
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Colorado Rockies
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago White Sox
• Detroit Tigers
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Florida Marlins
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago Cubs
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Kansas City Royals
• Los Angeles Dodgers

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