Johnny Giavotella (left) hopes to set up Eric Hosmer (right) for tons of RBI this season. Photo: Scott Sewell/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Kansas City Royals. KC finished tenth in the majors and sixth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.51 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Ned Yost is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.95 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.83 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.68 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.47 runs per game
The Royals field a very young and inexperienced lineup, so this may be a case where Yost knows more about his players than Major League regressions based on small sample sizes. For example, take Johnny Giavotella. He posted a .273 OBP in 187 PA during the 2011 season. In the minors, however, his career mark for OBP is .375. His minor league data says he can get on base.
Salvador Perez is just the opposite. He posted a .361 OBP in 2011 in just 158 PA, but in the minors he came in at .328 for his career.
Bill James takes into account minor league numbers, and shows Perez at .317/.413, while Giavotella comes in at .342/.419. Plugging those numbers into the LAT produces some lineups in the top 20 with Giavotella and Alex Gordon one and two, although Gordon usually bats second.
There is some hope that these young players, including Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain are still improving. If that group can exceed projections, the Royals might crack the five runs per game barrier. It’s a good time to be a Royals fan.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
- Explanation
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Detroit Tigers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Colorado Rockies
- Cincinnati Reds
- Arizona Diamondbacks
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