The Atlanta Braves batters exhibit three extreme splits in three categories. The hit much better at home, with an OPS of .895 at home versus .683 on the road. The hit right-handed pitchers better than lefties, with an OPS of .767 against right-handers, .631 against lefties. Finally they don’t get men on base often, but hit well when they do. Their OPS of .685 with the bases empty goes up to .780 with men on base. So it appears the best way to beat the Braves is to throw a lefty when the Braves are away from Atlanta who keeps the bases clear. Actually, that sounds like a way to win a lot of games. 🙂

Trying to see if I can blog from the iPad. Can’t scroll through the categories.

Will Andre Ethier find his power stroke on the road this year? Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished 11th in the majors and fourth in the National League in 2009, scoring 4.81 runs per game. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline serves as the template for the calculation.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 5.03 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.81 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.47 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.54 runs per game

Joe Torre’s probable lineup is projected to score as many runs per game as the Dodgers did last season. That’s not surprising, since the Dodgers didn’t add anyone new to the order. Teams really should look for their weak links and try to make that position better every year. The Braves were masters of that strategy in the early 1990s, and it kept the offense fresh and dynamic.

The LAT agrees on which players should be batting 1-2-3-4, but not on the order. Furcal is a tough player to slot. His OBPs are somewhat erratic. Some years he makes a great lead-off man, and some years you want to hide him at the bottom of the order. I do like the idea of batting Ethier ahead of Kemp, at least on the road where Andre’s power seems to disappear.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers

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I’m at the Harvard Yale basketball game.

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Ramiro Pena gets a chance to play in the World Series as he takes Melky Cabrera’s place on the Yankees roster.

Cabrera left the Yankees’ 7-4 win in Game 4 on Sunday night in the middle of the sixth inning with a slightly strained left hamstring. Cabrera took an awkward swing and appeared to hurt his leg while running out a grounder.

Brett Gardner, who took over for Cabrera on Sunday night, got his first career postseason start in center field on Monday night. He was 2 for 5 with three runs and two caught stealings in the postseason.

Manny Ramirez dropped the price of his Boston Condo from $8.5 million to $7.9 million. Maybe if the Red Sox give Jason Bay a big contract he can move it. 🙂

It’s nice to see Manny Ramirez never changes He was taking a shower while the Dodgers lost game 4, removed from the game for a defensive replacement:

He also shrugged off the issue of Ramirez’s skipping the final inning of Game 4. Ramirez was taken out of the game in the bottom of the ninth inning for the defensive specialist Juan Pierre, even though Ramirez made an excellent catch of Raul Ibanez’s sinking line drive in the sixth.

According to Torre, Ramirez’s shower was not a sign of indifference, but a gesture of confidence that Broxton would do his job. Torre said that often when the Dodgers come off the field, Ramirez is waiting in the clubhouse in street clothes.

“He’s a cool customer,” Torre said. “But he certainly didn’t have any lack of respect because of that. I think the way it turned out, it probably doesn’t look good. But it’s nothing different than he had done before.”

As the author notes:

Ramirez’s cavalier attitude in the face of desperation was reminiscent of 2007, when his Red Sox were also down by three games to one in Cleveland during the American League Championship Series. “If it doesn’t happen, who cares?” he said at the time. “There’s always next year. It’s not the end of the world.”

The last part of his comment might have been true, but fans and reporters in Boston were nearly apoplectic at the remark. And Ramirez’s words might have been therapeutic for the Red Sox, who did not lose another game and won their second World Series in four years.

Mike Port, baseball’s vice president in charge of umpiring, on what and what isn’t an out:

According to M.L.B., the second-base umpire Jerry Layne made the right decision when he called Cabrera safe on what should have been a routine double play. Television replays confirmed that Aybar never made contact with the bag while he had the ball in his possession.

“The right call, and in my opinion, a tremendous call,” said Mike Port, baseball’s vice president in charge of umpiring.

…

For instance, there is no such thing as tie goes to the runner. And pitches are not strikes if they go over the so-called “black” part of the plate for the simple reason that there is no black part of the plate in Major League Baseball.

And umpires do not give credit to a fielder for making a good throw, Port said. If a tag is not made before the runner hits the bag, then the umpire is supposed to call him safe.

If the wrong call is made, Port said it is only because the umpire missed it, not because of some unwritten rule book that umpires follow.

Port said umpires have two choices: “Safe or out. Ball or strike. Fair or foul. There is no third category.”

The play from Saturday night’s game, demonstrated something else. Tim McCarver originally thought that Aybar had not touched the bag on other plays. He had. When I was growing up, it was common knowledge that first basemen “cheated” by taking their foot off the bag to extend their stretch on throws. No one talks about this anymore because it doesn’t happen. Every replay I saw of “cheating” showed the first baseman holding the bag. What happens is that the first baseman’s foot comes off the bag very quickly after the catch, so if you’re watching in real time, and you’re looking for it, the cheating is there.

Are runners called out at second when the pivot man fails to touch the bag? Yes, but those are bad calls, just like when someone is called safe when a first baseman’s foot is off the bag.

Vlad Guerrero singles with two and the bases loaded in the ninth. That drives in two and gives the Angels a 7-6 lead. Paplebon blows a two run lead, and won’t be dancing today.

Thanks to all you expressed their concern yesterday. Everything’s fine, just needed to do some unexpected traveling to get my daughter. Thanks to all who commented on the Dodgers/Cardinals game.

The Angels don’t score in the bottom of the eighth, so the Red Sox need at least five runs in the top of the ninth.

Update: Oliver stays in the game.

Update: Victor Martinez popped up for out number one.

Update: Youkilis hits a hard groundball to shortstop for the second out.

Update: David Ortiz strikes out to end the game. The Angels win 5-0.

The ninth pretty much summed up the game for the Red Sox. The heart of the order for Boston went 0 for 11 with one walk and four strikeouts, three of them by Big Papi. Boston only managed four hits in the game, all singles.

Abreu walked in each of his four plate appearances, and scored on a three-run homer by Torri Hunter. The Angels hit, walked, and hit for power, the usual Boston formula for winning. John Lackey only struck out four, but not many of the balls in play against him fell for hits. Lester didn’t have his control as he walked four, and he made the big mistake to Hunter. A very nice win by LAnaheim and they lead the series 1-0.

The Rockies and Phillies kick off the day once again with a 2:37 PM EDT start as Aaron Cook faces Cole Hamels. Cook suffered a late season injury, but came back to pitch well in two starts, despite a lack of strikeouts (3 in 13 innings, but only one walk. Hamels rise in ERA this season was due mostly to giving up more hits. He struck out batters at about the same rate, and his walk and home run rates were comparable as well. I would note that both Jimmy Rollins and Pedro Feliz showed a fall off in their fielding skills this season. For a left-handed pitcher like Hamels, a weak left-side defense can hurt his numbers.

The Cardinals and Dodgers play a late afternoon game in Los Angeles as Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw battle. Wainwright led the National League in wins with 19 as he combined a great ERA with the fourth best run support in the league. The support was especially obvious on the road where his 3.39 ERA yielded him a 12-1 record. He allowed just two runs in 15 innings against the Dodgers this season. Kershaw’s ERA yielded him just a .500 record. Like Cook, he suffered a late season injury but pitched well in his return.

It’s Jon versus John in Anaheim as the Red Sox send Lester against the Angel’s Lackey. Lester’s strikeout rate made an impressive leap this year, and while it lowered the opposition averages against him, it didn’t lower his ERA. Lester also held a reverse platoon advantage this season, getting righties out better than lefties. Lackey reduced the number of home runs he allowed from 26 to 17, but his ERA went up as well. Lackey pitched well against all three AL playoff teams, going 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA, the only loss coming against Boston.

(Red Sox fans may look at the late start time as a bias against Boston fans. After all, with St. Louis in the central time zone, a 6:37 PM PDT start would be more manageable for Cardinals fans. However, the Angels have a worse record in night games, 63-51, .553 than they do in day games, 34-14, .708. Lackey’s record follows this pattern as well. I wonder if the Angels lobbied for the earlier start?)

Enjoy!