Ruben Tejada is developing into a prototypical leadoff hitter. Photo: Anthony J. Causi/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Metropolitans finished twelfth in the majors and sixth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.43 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Terry Collins is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The numbers in the pitching slot come from the actual numbers posted in 2011 by New York hurlers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.51 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.22 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.94 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.00 runs per game

The mark of the Mets front office is all over this lineup. Note that all eight position players are projected to post good OBPs. Andres Torres, at .323, owns the worst projection, but the other seven are around .340 or better. I can imagine this unit posting a .345 team mark, which would give them a chance to score a lot of runs, especially if Jason Bay bounces back from his health issues.

On the other hand, Terry Collins made out his lineup backwards. Torres and Daniel Murphy sit at the top of the order, while Lucas Duda and Ruben Tejada sit near the bottom with .354 OBP projections. The lineup I like the best of the top 20 the LAT produces is the 12th with Tejada and Duda at the top Josh Thole in the ninth spot, giving the Mets three good OBPs in front of the heart of the order. I suspect that if these projections work out, a young and improving Tejada will replace an older and declining Torres at the top of the order.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers

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