Hunter Pence brings some needed youth to the Phillies lineup. Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished thirteenth in the majors and seventh in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.40 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Charlie Manuel is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The numbers in the pitching slot come from the actual numbers posted in 2011 by Philadelphia hurlers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.46 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.22 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.96 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.00 runs per game

This lineup no longer scares teams. Even if Ryan Howard came back, his .343/.484 OBP/Slug projection is not the stuff of MVPs. It is a good think the front office put together a phenomenal pitching staff, as the Phillies may end up in the bottom half of the National League in runs scored.

Manuel doesn’t have much to work with, but putting Rollins at the top of the order no longer makes sense. I suspect Shane Victorino followed by Placido Polanco would make more sense, with Carlos Ruiz moving up to the fifth slot. At least that would put the best OBPs together, so the out machines behind them might drive in runs with grounders and flies.

This lineup is showing its age. The front office needs to start weaving in younger talent. Hunter Pence was a good start, but the Phillies will need a player like that every year for a while to keep the offense working.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Mets

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