Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

The key to a fine offensive season by Baltimore is great years by Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. Photo: Mark Goldman/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore finished fourteenth in the majors and seventh in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.37 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Buck Showalter is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.67 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.63 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.45 runs per game
Regressed lineup: 4.31 runs per game

Buck’s lineup comes very close to the optimum in terms of scoring. If you look at the projected lineup and the best according to the LAT, the same five players are in the same order, starting with Nick Markakis and ending with Wilson Betemit. Showalter has them three through seven while the LAT puts them 1-5, but putting the best players together in the order often generates good scoring.

On the other hand, there are a number of poor OBPs on this team, so the optimum lineup isn’t that much better than the worst lineup. If the Orioles employed two outstanding hitters, the lineup construction might matter a bit more, and the difference between top and bottom would be greater. Maybe this is the year Adam Jones and Matt Wieters become those hitters, and Baltimore blows away this run estimate.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

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March 14, 2012

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