Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays

The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay finished fifteenth in the majors and eighth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.36 runs per game.

Desmond has a barrow in the market place, and Jennings is on his way to developing into a fine lead-off hitter. Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon SMI

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Joe Maddon is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

Best lineup: 5.01 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.95 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.79 runs per game
Regressed lineup: 4.56 runs per game

This looks like a better offensive squad than the 2011 model. Desmond Jennings matured into a major leaguer, as did Matt Joyce. Maddon posts a lineup that is very close to the optimum. The only big disagreement between the LAT and the projected lineup is the place of B.J. Upton. Maddon bats the older Upton second, the LAT puts him seventh.

The two agree on Desmond Jennings leading off, and everything else comes down to small switches. I would not be surprised to see Jose Molina bat eighth and Sean Rodriguez ninth in some games. Maddon and the LAT both bat Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, and Carlos Pena together, but just disagree on the order. The LAT also puts them 2-5 instead of 3-6.

These minor changes don’t matter that much. If the Rays can increase their scoring by 0.2 or 0.3 runs per game, the quality of their pitching staff means they can expect to increase their 2011 win total, which should put them in the playoff hunt once again.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

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March 14, 2012

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