Starlin Castro represents the future of the Cubs offense. Photo: Warren Wimmer/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Pale Cubs finished tied for eighteenth in the majors and eighth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.04 runs per game. They scored the exact same number of runs as their cross-town rivals, the Chicago White Sox.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one first-year manager Dale Sveum is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The pitching line comes from the 2011 numbers for the Cubs hurlers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.27 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.05 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 3.74 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 3.87 runs per game
It doesn’t look like the Cubs will score many more runs than they did in 2011. When I typed the lineup into the LAT, I thought Dale did as good a job as he could with this group of personnel. The tool wants to bat Geovany Soto higher, but Sveum gets the 1-4 and 5-9 split right. In fact, lineup 13 on the list is pretty close to the one Sveum puts on the field. I hope with the stats group Theo Epstein and company assembled, Sveum will at least bat the pitcher eighth.
This is not a young team. Castro is likely to be the only one around when the new regime finishes their rebuilding. This is a place-holder offense. If everything goes right, and the pitching is good, they might approach .500. The playoff Cubs lie in the future, however.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
- Explanation
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Detroit Tigers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Colorado Rockies
- Cincinnati Reds
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Kansas City Royals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Baltimore Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Indians
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Chicago White Sox
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I know you have to use SOME data source, but I have some misgivings about Marcel projections.
You haven’t gotten to your assessment of the Padres yet, but they traded for Yonder Alonso specifically to be their starting first baseman, and Marcel has him getting 252 plate appearances and 228 at bats, a preposterous number, unless he’s still a backup left fielder for Cincinnati, which he’s not. Then there’s Headley projected with 434 ABs, Maybin with 465, and Hudson with 429, when they’ll all have at least 500.
I also seriously doubt that Edinson Volquez, the Padres #3 starter, is going to pitch 22 starts and 121 innings. Last year, he pitched 108-2/3 innings in 20 starts for Cincinnati and 87-1/3 innings in 13 starts in triple-A for a total of 33 starts and 196 innings. You can quibble over comparing hits, walks and strike outs between the two levels, but for durability measures, it doesn’t matter where the starts and innings pitched were accomplished, he pitched the load for a #1 or #2 starter, proving at least that he’s fully recovered from TJ surgery.
Then there’s Cory Luebke, who started in the bullpen but became a starter, replacing Clayton Richard for 17 starts and did so well in 140 innings total that he’s now in the rotation replacing Harang. Marcel has him for 21 relief appearances and 14 starts, pitching a mere 110 innings. Moseley’s season was cut short after 20 starts and 120 innings, but he’ll pitch one less start and one more inning? Bass pitched 118 innings as long man and spot starter, but he’ll pitch only 53?
I can see Marcel doing the Alonso projection before the trade and not updating, and I can even almost see Marcel being unaware that Luebke is now a full time starter, but using just the major league innings with Volquez for his projection is a major oversight – 87-1/3 innings worth. There’s no understanding the Bass and Moseley projections.
I’ve noticed something similar happening with projections from not only Marcel, but ZiPS, Roto, Steamer and a couple others. I now know why the consensus is for the Padres to win 73+/- games: key parts of the offense are left out, as well as 60% if the rotation! If it means anything to you, I’ve found CBS Sports’ fantasy projections to be more reasonable, for the Padres at least.
Larry » Thanks, Larry.