The Dodgers hope Jerry Sands's high minor league OBP carries over to the major leagues. Photo: Ric Tapia/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished twentieth in the majors and ninth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.00 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Don Mattingly is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The pitching line comes from the 2011 numbers for the Los Angeles hurlers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.41 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.17 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.90 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 3.96 runs per game

My first thought when typing in the order was that if you are going to play multiple players named Ellis, at least put the better hitter in a position to do some good. As A.J. Ellis catches, I understand not wanting him at the top of the order. However, ninth would be a great spot for him, and he gets closer to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, giving them more RBI opportunities. The tool likes him ninth as well.

At this point in his career, James Loney should not be in a power slot. His strength offensively, if anything, is getting on base. I’d rather see James Loney or Jerry Sands at the top of the order in stand of Mark Ellis. The LAT likes Loney batting fifth much more than I do. Of course, the Dodgers don’t actually have a third hitter who supplies real power, so Dee Gordon, Loney, and Sands become somewhat interchangeable.

Don Mattingly should rethink his order a bit. If these projections work out, Don would be giving up about a quarter run per game, or about 40 runs over a full season. That’s four wins. In a year with a second wild card, that could make a big difference. Getting Mark Ellis out of the table setter role should help, and he won’t need to make an unorthodox lineup.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Baltimore Orioles
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cleveland Indians
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Chicago White Sox
• Chicago Cubs

If you like the Lineup Analysis Tool or series like this, please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.