Team Offense, Seattle Mariners

The series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners scored 3.95 runs per game in 2009, ranking 28th in the majors and 14th in the American League. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline, seems to be a bit out of date, so I used this one from Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.98 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.92 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.65 runs per game
Regressed lineup: 4.62 runs per game

When I entered the lineup and the projections, I could see that Don Wakamatsu’s order would do well. He put high OBPs at the top, his best hitter fourth instead of third, and his worst hitter eighth. He put together a lineup that should make all the player happy, and it only differs from the optimum lineup by 0.05 runs per game. That’s only eight runs over a full season. Note that the projected lineup puts Figgins, Bradley and Kotchman together in the lineup 9-1-2, while Don bats them 2-4-3. Most interesting to me is that the LAT sees Ichiro more as a #5 hitter among this group of players, a table setter for the lower part of the order.

What should be more encouraging to Mariners fans, however, is the projected improvement in run scoring. At 4.92 runs per game, Seattle should score 154 more runs that in 2009. If they can hold their runs allowed steady at 692, they should produce a .568 winning percentage, good for 92 wins. That puts them in contention for a playoff spot. Seattle is definitely on the right track in terms of turning this team around.

Previous entries in this series:

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March 29, 2010

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