An improved OBP by Ian Desmond would help the Nationals offense in 2012. Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nats finished twenty third in the majors and eleventh in the National League in offense last season, scoring 3.88 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Davey Johnson is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The pitching numbers are the actual results for the Washington hurlers in 2011. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.49 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.29 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.99 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.06 runs per game

Looking at the lineup, I’m less confident of the Nationals chances of making the playoffs, especially if both Adam LaRoche and Mike Morse start the season on the disabled list. I’m also a bit surprised that Johnson is using Ian Desmond at the top of the order rather than Danny Espinosa. I suspect Davey might see something in Desmond that don’t show up in his two-plus years of major league experience. Desmond did post a better OBP after Johnson took over, so maybe that’s how Davey sees Ian.

You can also see why the Nats sent Bryce Harper down to learn to play centerfield. If you replace Roger Bernadina‘s numbers with a .350/.450 OBP/Slug by Bryce Harper (properly conservative), the team’s potential for scoring goes up about 0.15 runs per game, or 24 runs a season. That’s two or three wins in the Nats column. The Nationals would then be able to string together five players with good OBPs and decent power, which would fit in well with the rest of the NL East. There is definitely upside to projected lineup.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Baltimore Orioles
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cleveland Indians
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Chicago White Sox
• Chicago Cubs
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Oakland Athletics
• Atlanta Braves

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