Team Offense, San Diego Padres

The series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres scored 3.94 runs per game in 2009, ranking last in the majors and the National League. The batting order comes from the probable lineup on CBSSportsline.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.57 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.29 runs per game
Worst lineup: 3.96 runs per game
Regressed lineup: 4.16 runs per game

My first thought when I looked at the projected lineup was how Bud Black could bat Everth Cabrera so low. I see that Black is toying with the idea of leading off with Everth, as he did on Saturday. If you put Cabrera and Gwynn 1-2, and Eckstein down to 8th, the order projects to 4.33 runs per game, a little bit of an improvement.

I would prefer Blanks to hit higher, right behind Gonzalez and ahead of Headley. Black may do that as well.

There’s not a lot of power on this team, but given their home park, that may not be that important. The NL average OBP last year was .331, and six of the Padres eight position players project to do better than that. A seventh, David Eckstein, falls just short at .330. So the team could end up with a good OBP. Fewer outs expands the offense giving players like Cabrera, Gonzalez and Blanks more chances to produce. Given their low scoring park, the Padres could turn in a decent home record if they could manage to score half a run more per game.

Previous entries in this series:

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March 29, 2010

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