Dustin Ackley is destined to be the favorite player of Bill the Cat. Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished last in the majors and last in the American League in offense last season, scoring 3.43 runs per game. They were the second lowest scoring team in the AL since 1988.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Eric Wedge is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.43 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.37 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.08 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.12 runs per game
Wedge seems to understand the type of lineup construction the LAT prefers. He places his two worst OBP players seventh and eighth, and gets Brendan Ryan ninth, a better person to set up the top of the order. The LAT likes Dustin Ackley as a table setter, but Ichrio should probably be first or second in the order. The idea is that Chone Figgins will do a better job getting on base as a lead-off hitter. Wedge’s lineup will look good.
There also is upside in Ackely, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak. If the Mariners can find a couple of decent players to replace out machines Miguel Olivo and Michael Saunders, Seattle will turn out to be a very good offensive team.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
- Explanation
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Detroit Tigers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Colorado Rockies
- Cincinnati Reds
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Kansas City Royals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Baltimore Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Indians
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Chicago White Sox
- Chicago Cubs
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Oakland Athletics
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins
- Minnesota Twins
- Houston Astros
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- San Diego Padres
- San Francisco Giants
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This is pretty good to hear. Seems to me Montero is right there to replace Olivo at some point, and, so help me, I still have hope for Saunders. He’s always had the talent, and there are glimmers this spring that he’s got something figured out. And if he is bad, Wells & Robinson are ready to slot in instead.