The series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished twenty eighth in the majors and fifteenth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 3.66 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Bud Black is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. For the pitchers, I used the team’s actual numbers from 2011 at that position. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.25 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.04 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 3.75 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 3.86 runs per game

The Padres lineup looks a lot better to me than I thought it would. Of the eight position players, only Will Venable projects to a poor OBP, and it’s not that far off from league average. Up and down the lineups, while there are no difficult outs, there are no easy outs, either. Unfortunately, Black fails to make the best of the OBP strength of the lineup by batting Venable first. I assume this is due to Will’s base stealing acumen (62 for 74 in his career), but that would work just as well in the ninth slot. Otherwise, it looks like an order that should but men on base, and there just may be enough power in the middle to drive plenty of them home.

If you have a chance, click on the spreadsheet link below, or the Pirate link below to compare the two potential offenses. The optimum lineup for both teams comes in at 4.25 runs per game, but the worst Pirates lineup scored 0.1 runs fewer per game than the worst one the Padres could post. The Pirates concentrate their offense in a few good hitters, while the Padres have few highs and lows in their order. Basically, the less variation between hitters in the lineup, the less work a manager needs to do to put his best one on the field. The Yankees are an extreme example of this; all their players are very good, so there is little difference between their best and worst batting orders. For team with more concentrated talent, the order can matter quite a bit.

Padres fans look like they are in for a nice surprise from the offense this season, as it should be markedly better than the 2011 model.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Baltimore Orioles
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cleveland Indians
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Chicago White Sox
• Chicago Cubs
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Oakland Athletics
• Atlanta Braves
• Washington Nationals
• Miami Marlins
• Minnesota Twins
• Houston Astros
• Pittsburgh Pirates

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